Dive Brief:

• Manufacturers are expecting to more than double their use of automation, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies by 2030, according to an industry outlook from PricewaterhouseCoopers published Friday.
• The U.K.-based professional services firm, also known as PwC, surveyed 443 industrial manufacturing executives around the world for the report. The median share of respondents believe that advanced technology adoption throughout their operations is set to increase from 26% to 68% over the course of five years.
• Two areas with the heaviest use of advanced technology today are production/operations and product design/development, according to the report. Other areas where adoption is relatively low, such as business support functions like finance and human resources, are set to quadruple by the end of the decade.

Dive Insight:

The race is on for manufacturers looking to enable AI and automation across their operations to boost efficiencies or create growth opportunities across the $16 trillion sector, but not everyone is starting from the same place. 

There is a widening gap between the “future-fit” companies and those falling behind due to poor data quality, skills gaps or fragmented systems, Ryan Hawk, global and U.S. industrials and services leader at PwC and author of the manufacturing outlook, said in an email. The gap could grow further as technology and capability advantages build on one another.

“The question is no longer whether companies will adopt new technologies, but how fast they can integrate them,” Hawk said. “As automation becomes ubiquitous, the advantage shifts from who has tools to who can orchestrate them across the enterprise.”

Automation of key business processes, such as data capture and analytics and physical production, is set to boom. According to PwC, adoption of highly automated processes will nearly triple by 2030, extending from the front and back offices to research and development and the shop floor. Survey results show a more even distribution of technology enablement across the value chain, not just in production/operations.

Hawk said this even spread was “most eye-opening.” It signals a fundamental shift toward AI-supported engineering, digital twins and more simulation-driven development, “not just smarter factories,” he said. There’s also growing interest in sensor technologies and physical AI.

As technology enablement and automation surge, manufacturers are looking beyond their core products for ways to generate revenue. They are positioning themselves as providers of “integrated solutions” that combine hardware with software, data, services and technology support, Hawk said. Deere & Co., for example, has been moving beyond equipment toward a digital platform that helps farmers make faster, better decisions.

“Instead of simply shipping equipment, they’re looking to own more of the lifecycle from predictive maintenance to data-driven optimization,” he said. “In many cases, that requires ecosystem collaborations and new capabilities that didn’t sit at the core of the organization five or 10 years ago.”

PwC survey respondents are expecting “fully 44%” of their companies’ total revenue to come from outside of manufacturing industrial or consumer products by 2030. The top three “growth hotspots” are technology, digital and communications products and services; defense, governmental and educational offerings; and energy and fuel production and distribution.

Fostering a strong company culture is also important for manufacturers on their adoption journeys. When leaders are confident about their digital transformation, but their frontline teams do not feel safe or supported in learning new skills, adoption slows, Hawk said.

To bridge the gap, manufacturers need to communicate effectively on how roles will change, invest in upskilling and create environments that encourage experimentation, he said. “Companies that treat workforce readiness as a core pillar of their automation strategy will be far better positioned to turn technology ambition into measurable performance gains.”

This article was written by Nathan Owens from Manufacturing Dive and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to [email protected].

RXO issues updated Curve forecast from Charlotte

Charlotte, N.C.-based full truckload brokerage RXO released the latest edition of its proprietary "Curve" truckload forecast this week. The report noted that spot truckload rates rose both year-over-year and sequentially in the fourth quarter — the first time rates have shown sequential growth in four quarters — and projects further annual and sequential increases in 2026 as carrier capacity tightens relative to shipper demand.

History and structure of the Curve model

The Curve was originally introduced by Coyote Logistics in 2018. Coyote was later acquired by UPS in August 2015 and then sold to RXO in September 2024. RXO describes the Curve as a proprietary forecasting tool that assists shippers and carriers in positioning for varying market conditions.

How the Curve analyzes market cycles

RXO’s model evaluates three overlapping cycles to reveal recurring patterns that can guide logistics decisions:

• Seasonal demand cycles
• Annual procurement cycles
• Market capacity dynamics, which are often harder to quantify

Principal findings highlighted in the report

The Curve’s recent edition emphasized several core observations that underpin its outlook for late 2025 and 2026.

• Spot rates showed both year-over-year and sequential gains in Q4 after a period of sequential softness.
• The jump in spot rates between Q3 and Q4 was substantial — moving from a 1.8% annual gain in Q3 to a 5.2% annual gain in Q4.
• RXO expects 2026 to produce further annual and sequential gains as carrier capacity tightens against shipper demand.
• Volatility may ease somewhat later in the first quarter, but the market is likely to remain in inflationary territory with Q1 ending higher than Q4.
• The report flagged continued carrier exits tied to enforcement of new government rules as a potential upward pressure on rates, while also noting upside signs such as stronger industrial production data and government stimulus.

Insights from RXO’s Corey Klujsza

In an interview with LM, Corey Klujsza, RXO’s vice president of pricing and procurement strategy, said the report’s biggest takeaway is the widening split in rate behavior across the market amid what most view as a soft demand backdrop. He noted that demand remains the primary catalyst for meaningful changes in rate volatility.

Shippers’ forecasts versus carrier signals

Klujsza pointed out a growing disconnect between shipper forecasts and carrier commentary. Many shippers are budgeting and planning for largely flat volumes in 2026, while carriers are signaling conditions that look materially different than a year earlier. He said aligning shipper and carrier perspectives is crucial to keeping freight moving efficiently.

Comparisons to prior cycles and inventory dynamics

Unlike easily explained shifts during the pandemic, when annual changes in goods consumption clarified rate moves, Klujsza said current drivers are more nuanced. He observed potential signs of restocking: inventories were generally lower into 2025, and December showed different inventory behavior. Those inventory adjustments, along with modest changes in consumer behavior and manufacturing orders, could be influencing the observed rate volatility and suggest structural shifts on the supply side.

Causes of the Q4 spot rate surge

The report and Klujsza attributed the near threefold sequential increase in spot rates — from 1.8% in Q3 to 5.2% in Q4 — to a string of capacity-constrained events across 2025. Typical seasonal peaks, short demand surges and episodic supply shocks such as DOT’s Road Check Week combined to tighten available capacity.

Klujsza added that some capacity elected to sit out of the market during those events, and that during constrained periods RXO observed outperformance relative to the prior three years. He described how the market rebounded quickly back to baseline behavior, but that September through November showed upward momentum in annual rates, with December acting as the catalyst that pushed spot rates to the Q4 result.

First quarter outlook and market balance

Looking ahead, the Curve’s first-quarter forecast expects volatility to ease somewhat later in the quarter while remaining inflationary overall, meaning Q1 should finish higher than Q4. The report also warned that additional carrier exits — whether from regulatory enforcement or shifts in demand — could keep upward pressure on rates.

Reasons for cautious optimism

Despite inflationary pressures and structural supply-side changes, RXO identified positives that could temper the market: improving industrial production readings and certain government stimulus measures. These factors provide some optimism even as the industry braces for tighter capacity and evolving demand patterns in 2026.

Supreme Court ruling and White House reaction

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose reciprocal tariffs, issuing a 6-3 decision. Within hours, the White House announced a new tariff measure to take effect on February 24 at 12:01 AM ET, following the IEEPA tariffs that were first introduced by the administration last April.

Structure and timing of the replacement tariff

The administration said the replacement would be a temporary import duty enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974: a 150-day levy initially set at 10% on most goods coming into the United States. Over the weekend, President Trump posted that he would increase that rate to 15% effective immediately, though the White House had not formally confirmed the higher rate at the time of the announcement.

Objectives driving the new levy

Officials framed the Section 122 tariff as a tool to curb dollar outflows, encourage domestic manufacturing, support job creation, and strengthen economic and national security. The administration said the measure is intended to address what it described as serious international payment imbalances and a growing U.S. balance-of-payments deficit.

Goods excluded from the temporary tariff

The White House listed a range of exclusions from the Section 122 duty. Excluded categories include:

• Critical minerals and energy products
• Fertilizers not sufficiently produced domestically
• Certain agricultural goods, including beef, tomatoes and oranges
• Pharmaceuticals and their active ingredients
• Certain electronics
• Passenger vehicles and some trucks, buses and related parts
• Aerospace products
• Books, charitable donations and accompanied baggage
• Goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs
• USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico
• Certain textiles and apparel covered under CAFTA-DR

De minimis shipments and immediate tariff actions

President Trump also reiterated the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports, meaning low-value shipments that previously qualified for duty-free entry will now be subject to the new temporary duty. In his social media post about raising the tariff, he said the administration would move immediately to the higher rate and would determine legally permissible longer-term tariffs in the coming months.

Administration plans for alternative trade tools

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the White House remains committed to the administration's trade agenda and had warned trading partners and businesses that, if the IEEPA approach was invalidated, it would deploy alternative authorities. Those alternatives are meant to pursue the reciprocal tariff program's underlying goals: reducing the U.S. goods trade deficit, reversing lack of reciprocity by foreign trading partners, and incentivizing reshoring of production.

• Planned actions include new and ongoing investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to address unfair or discriminatory foreign trade practices.
• The administration also intends to maintain tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1963 and to conclude ongoing investigations.

Economic analysis of tariff replacement scenarios

S&P Global Market Intelligence noted the administration has several statutory alternatives and has publicly committed to keeping tariffs central to trade policy despite the court ruling. The firm said the macroeconomic effect of the court's decision will hinge on whether the administration can replace the invalidated IEEPA levies with tariffs authorized by other statutes.

S&P Global explained that the inflationary effect of, for example, a 15% average tariff does not depend on the specific authorizing statute: a Section 301 tariff that raises the same revenue as an IEEPA tariff would have a comparable effect on aggregate prices. If tariff revenues can be replaced quickly, the firm does not expect a change to its inflation outlook; if they cannot, it expects lower inflation in 2026 and a potentially earlier easing of Federal Reserve policy.

Legal, strategic and supply chain uncertainties

Keith Prather, managing director at Armada Corporate Intelligence, told LM the ruling and the White House's next steps raise several questions: which countries will try to nullify existing agreements, how quickly the administration can complete Section 232 and 301 investigations, and whether tariffs under Section 122 or Section 338 will face successful legal challenges.

Prather suggested the administration may have pre-planned for a 15% Section 122 rate over the weekend because it aligns with negotiated tariff levels for many of the 19 countries that have recent trade agreements. He said the White House could choose to leave those negotiated agreements in place while applying Section 122 duties more broadly, or it could stack short-term tariffs and then pursue longer-term measures through investigations.

Prather also highlighted a practical supply chain dilemma: with the 150-day Section 122 period expiring on July 24, companies must decide whether to accelerate inbound shipments to take advantage of the temporary treatment or maintain normal replenishment cycles and manage inventory and capital costs differently depending on product price sensitivity.

Legal advice and recommendations for importers

Law firm Benesch of Cleveland warned that the court's decision has created immediate uncertainty for supply chains, with billions of dollars in duties now in question and an unclear route for potential refunds. The firm emphasized that not all tariffs are affected—the tariffs imposed under other legal authorities such as Section 232 and Section 301 remain in force.

Benesch urged importers to keep detailed records of customs entries and duties paid in 2025, closely track developments around possible refund procedures, prepare for new tariffs under alternate statutes, monitor any electronic refund processes, and consider filing comments on pending customs changes.