LM reader survey assesses 2026 Peak Season outlook

In recent years, Peak Season has meant different things for supply chain and logistics stakeholders, first due to the pandemic and subsequently due to trade- and tariff-related issues. For, 2026, the latter is still clearly having an impact on Peak Season activity.A major driver of that is the high level of front-loading, or pulling forward of cargo in order to avoid what are widely assumed to be higher tariff levels, following the July 24 expiration date of the White House’s temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs, which took effect in February, soon after the United States Supreme Court ruled against the legality of the White House’s usage of tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Act (IEEPA).In the months leading up to the expiration of the Section 122 tariffs, the level of early shipping, in the form of front-loading and pulling forward, has been apparent. That was made clear in June data issued by the Port of Los Angeles (POLA), which observed that total July POLA volume—at 1,002,734 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—increased 12% annually, for the busiest June on record for the port, and also marking the third time monthly volumes have topped the 1 million TEU mark. Port officials attributed the strong month to strong import demand, with retailers and manufacturers pulling forward cargo, due to what it called “evolving trade policy,” as well as higher fuel costs and ongoing global supply chain uncertainty.“Importers aren't simply moving more cargo now; they're moving it differently,” said POLA Executive Director Gene Seroka. “Many companies have stepped away from traditional seasonal shipping patterns, advancing cargo whenever they see an opening rather than waiting for perfect conditions. In other words, retailers are making strategic decisions about when and how much to ship, balancing back-to-school and holiday demand against tariffs, rising fuel costs, and global uncertainty.”To that end, the results of a recently-conducted Logistics Management reader survey of 100 freight transportation, logistics, and supply chain stakeholders highlighted various aspects of the 2026 peak season, related to how things are currently progressing as well as things to monitor over the coming months.The survey’s findings pointed to respondents planning for a more active Peak Season in 2026, with 52% of respondents stating it will be more active (nearly doubling last year’s 27% reading), 19% said it would be less active (well below last year’s 42% reading), and 30% said it will be about the same (in line with last year’s 31%).Reasons cited by respondents pointing towards a more active 2026 compared to 2025 included: customer delivery commitments; tight over-the-road capacity; rates and pricing; the traditional holiday rush; and geopolitical issues.For those in the other camp, calling for a less active Peak Season, tariffs led the way, as well as lower sales partially due to high tariffs, in addition to fuel costs, and lower sales and revenues.As for the impact of Peak Season on day-to-day operations, the survey’s results showed that 44% of respondents view it as very significant, with 56% saying it is somewhat significant.And in a straight “yes” or “no” question, 78% of respondents said Peak Season impacts their day-to-day operations, down from 91% last year, while the remaining 22%, up from 9% last year, said it does not impact their day-to-day operations.Reasons for the former included: labor shortages; delivery delays with additional volume into the same footprint; increased logistics coordination; capacity constraints; and increased freight and fuel costs.With an earlier Peak Season this year, the Global Port Tracker report, which is published by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, is calling for second-half volumes to trend down.“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Intelligence, at S&P Global Markets, said that while there is an earlier Peak Season this year, shippers now have a “playbook for uncertainty,” for how to approach and handle shifting situations, based on learning from past experiences.“Tariffs have been and are happening, and shippers know to pull-forward where it makes sense to do so,” he said. “You want to try and identify where there's risks that we need to control versus risks that we want to control. Every risk mitigation has a cost, and I think people have learned over the past two years that you need to do something, but you shouldn't do too much. And that is why we are seeing pull-forward activity but perhaps not to the same extent as last year.”