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Global Logistics: Europe recalibrates in a volatile trade landscape

Global Logistics: Europe recalibrates in a volatile trade landscape
The introduction of a new 10% global tariff in February of this year—and President Trump’s subsequent announcement that it could increase to 15%—has created widespread uncertainty within the European Union, as well as among European companies and the logistics sector. Following the EU-U.S. agreement that had already been reached, questions now remain about how U.S. Customs policy will evolve, which provisions of the agreement will remain valid, and whether additional increases could occur once the 150-day period under Section 122 expires. On Feb. 23, 2026, the European Parliament responded to the new tariffs by halting the ratification process for the current trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, officially known as the “Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade.” Due to the legal uncertainty, EU parliamentarians paused the vote to clarify whether the new tariff “surcharge” would be applied in addition to the rates already outlined in the agreement or would replace them. Further discussions with the Trump administration are now under way. The Trump administration’s shifting trade and tariff policies—combined with a recent Supreme Court decision—have created new challenges and additional work for shippers and logistics providers, particularly as companies prepare to negotiate contract agreements in the coming months. Lars Jensen, president of the consulting firm Vespucci Maritime, explains: “The new uncertainty surrounding tariffs comes at an inconvenient time for shippers, as U.S. importers remain unable to make stable long-term decisions for their supply chains. This creates a very difficult environment for shippers, who must commit to shipping volumes over the next 12 months while also determining where key parts of their cargo will originate. Many are effectively forced to gamble on whether now is the right time to front-load cargo ahead of a potential new tariff regime in July.” Because the new tariff is temporary—lasting only 150 days under Section 122 unless Congress acts to extend it—Jensen expects the tariff regime could change again before July 24, 2026. “We just don’t know when or how,” he says. The new tariff uncertainty is also creating additional work for many logistics companies in Europe as customer inquiries increase significantly. “The need for advice is correspondingly high,” explains Robert Gutsche, CFO of the German logistics service provider Röhlig Logistics. After months of turbulence in the trans-Atlantic partnership, many Europeans are questioning whether the U.S. remains a reliable partner and are increasingly turning toward new trade relationships. In January 2026, the European Union concluded two major trade agreements—after years of negotiations—with the Mercosur countries and with India. Together, these agreements could create two of the world’s largest trading areas. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement links the EU’s 27 member states with the four founding Mercosur nations—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The pact covers a market of roughly 700 million people and represents nearly 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP). The agreement will eliminate tariffs on 91% of goods traded with Mercosur. That includes duties currently as high as 35% on products such as cars and spirits. In return, the EU will eliminate tariffs on 92% of imports from Mercosur, saving EU exporters more than $4.6 billion annually in duties. Despite quotas and safeguards designed to protect European agricultural interests, the deal represents a significant step toward further trade liberalization between the two economic blocs. However, the process encountered a setback on Jan. 21, 2026, when the European Parliament referred the agreement to the European Court of Justice for review, effectively halting the ratification process. Relief followed a month later when EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Feb. 27 that the agreement could be provisionally applied to secure a first-mover advantage. Under current rules, the agreement can enter provisional force two months after the exchange of notifications with Mercosur member states. That development is welcome news for many logistics providers who are placing considerable hopes on the deal. “In times of rising tariffs, increasing protectionism and growing trade fragmentation, this agreement stands out as a much-needed beacon of hope,” says Tobias Bartz, CEO of the German-based logistics provider Rhenus Group. “It sends a clear signal for open trade, mutual growth and long-term resilience.” According to Bartz, the agreement reflects the kind of strategy the EU needs right now—strengthening alliances with like-minded regions. “As Latin America becomes an increasingly important pillar of global trade, closer cooperation is essential for Europe,” he says. “With growing demand, strong industrial potential and a deep talent base, countries like Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay offer more than raw materials—they offer opportunity.” Bartz adds that the agreement will not only eliminate tariffs and simplify customs procedures, but also create clearer rules, faster cargo flows and more reliable planning for globally operating companies. The European Commission estimates that the agreement could boost annual EU exports by as much as €49 billion and create more than 440,000 jobs, particularly in the automotive, mechanical engineering and pharmaceutical sectors. “This is a deal that strengthens Europe,” says Bartz. Attention is also turning to how quickly the EU’s second major trade agreement—this one with India—can be ratified. Described by von der Leyen as the “mother of all deals,” the EU-India free trade agreement would cover roughly 2 billion consumers and account for about 25% of global GDP and one-third of global trade. The agreement would eliminate tariffs on 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU and 96.6% of EU exports to India over a five- to ten-year period. Key provisions include cutting Indian car import tariffs from 110% to 10%, reducing wine duties to between 20% and 75%, and eliminating duties on machinery and chemicals. Global maritime news portal gCaptain expects container shipping to feel the impact quickly. Tariff savings of roughly $4.75 billion annually on EU goods would make moving cargo between the regions significantly more economical. Ports on India’s west coast—including Jawaharlal Nehru Port, Mundra and Pipavav—are well positioned for growth due to their proximity to Europe-bound shipping routes. European hubs such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Piraeus and Valencia are also expected to capture increased volumes. The EU-India agreement could also encourage new direct deep-sea services between India and Northern Europe, reducing dependence on transshipment hubs in East Asia such as Singapore or Colombo. Carriers may respond by reducing Chinese port rotations and adding additional Indian calls. Lower tariffs on machinery and industrial equipment could boost breakbulk and project cargo movements, while liberalization in the automotive and engineering sectors may increase demand for ro-ro carriers and specialized heavy-lift vessels. Manufacturing shifts could also influence bulk shipping flows, according to gCaptain. UK–U.S. relations have long been defined by a strong trans-Atlantic partnership and deep trade ties. However, ongoing political tensions and punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on the UK and EU have strained those traditionally close relationships. The two governments had already agreed to a trade deal in May 2025. Known as the U.S.–UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD), the agreement focused on sector-specific tariff reductions and regulatory cooperation. But the U.S. Supreme Court’s February decision declaring President Trump’s previous “reciprocal” tariffs illegal—followed by his announcement of a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, initially limited to 150 days—has created additional uncertainty for the British government, manufacturers and the logistics industry. According to the International Trade Trends Survey 2026, published by Make UK and DHL Express in Feb. 2026, sweeping tariffs and shifting global trade policies are forcing UK manufacturers to rethink their international trade strategies. Rising costs, uncertainty and growing trade barriers are reshaping global markets and prompting many companies to diversify exports, adjust supply chains and reassess long-term growth plans. In fact, 82% of exporting manufacturers report that the EU remains their primary export market, confirming that the EU’s single market continues to be the main destination for UK-manufactured goods. Despite the UK’s exit from the EU, this reliance highlights how EU standards, rules and customs procedures remain critically important for British manufacturers. Data from the survey shows that the United States remains a key export destination for British manufacturers. It is the largest single-country market for UK manufactured goods and the second-largest export market overall, with 58% of respondents reporting shipments to the U.S. A further 34% also export to Canada. However, the impact of tariffs is now being felt across UK manufacturing. The survey data shows that U.S. tariffs have driven both short-term surges in trade and longer-term market retrenchment. One in four respondents (24%) reported shipping more goods to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs taking effect. At the same time, a similar percentage (24%) said they had lost revenue due to higher costs tied to tariffs, while 23% reported shifting their focus to other markets as a mitigating strategy. One in five companies (20%) said they had already stopped or reduced exports to the U.S., and another 16% plan to do so. This suggests a notable minority of manufacturers are exiting the U.S. market as a result of tariff policy changes. There is growing concern within the logistics industry that President Trump’s political threats and uncertain tariff policies toward Great Britain and Europe could continue. As a result, the business group Logistics UK has urged policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic to take a measured approach to trade negotiations in order to protect global supply chains and avoid inflationary pressures. According to James Mills, head of trade policy at Logistics UK: “The United States is the UK’s largest single-country trading partner, with around 40,000 UK businesses exporting goods to the U.S. and close to one million jobs supported by that trade. Many of these businesses and employees are in the logistics sector, which enables all trade to happen smoothly. Any renewed threat of tariffs risks creating uncertainty that supply chains and exporters can ill afford—particularly when margins are already tight and businesses are focused on growth and investment.” Despite tense trans-Atlantic relations, Great Britain remains an attractive market for U.S. logistics providers. In recent years, GXO Logistics has placed strong strategic emphasis on the UK market. Following its acquisition of British logistics provider Wincanton in 2024, GXO reported in its fiscal-year 2025 results that the integration “is underway and on track to deliver full run-rate synergies of about $60 million by the end of 2026.” In February 2026, GXO also announced a new partnership with London Luton Airport (LLA) to operate the airport’s first consolidation center, which will screen all airside deliveries entering the facility. From high-end fashion and cosmetics to consumer electronics and goods destined for LLA’s shops and restaurants, GXO will securely check and deliver every item entering the terminal as well as shipments supporting airside operations. The consolidation center will be located in one of three hangars being repurposed as part of an £11.5 million refurbishment program that also includes two new aircraft engineering and maintenance hangars. While relations between the United States and many of its trans-Atlantic partners have cooled considerably, Hungary occupies a somewhat unique position in its relationship with Washington. Within the European Union, Hungary often plays the role of an outlier due to its frequent opposition to certain EU policy decisions. At the same time, the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has positioned the country’s foreign policy as a mediator between major global powers, including the United States, Russia and China. Hungary’s close ties with Washington—along with the personal relationship between Orbán and President Trump—have recently translated into both political and economic advantages for the country. As a result, Hungary received an exemption from U.S. sanctions affecting imports of Russian oil. At the same time, the Hungarian government reached an agreement with the White House involving significant purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas, military equipment and technologies related to small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). According to Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, more than 1,500 U.S. companies are currently active in Hungary, employing roughly 100,000 people. Over the past decade, the Hungarian government has supported approximately 145 investment projects by U.S. companies. Most recently, Procter & Gamble announced new investments in the country. Hungary’s strategic location in Central Europe also offers excellent development opportunities for the logistics industry. The country has been a member of the European Union since 2004 and connects Western Europe with the markets of Eastern Europe and Asia. The Mordor Intelligence Institute estimates the size of the Hungarian freight and logistics market at $11.15 billion for 2026, with projections reaching $13.12 billion by 2031—representing a compound annual growth rate of 3.31% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2031. The Hungarian freight and logistics market benefits from its role as a hub on the Rhine-Danube and Orient-Eastern Europe-Mediterranean transport axes, steady inflows from the EU Cohesion Fund, increasing investment in the automotive and battery industries, and growing e-commerce volumes, which are driving growth in courier, express, and parcel services. The ongoing expansion of the motorway and rail transport infrastructure is increasing the reliability of services in the transport and logistics business. The Hungarian government is investing in logistics infrastructure projects to further enhance its competitiveness. One major project is the construction of a third terminal at Budapest Airport, scheduled for completion by 2032. Around €2 billion ($2.4 billion) is being invested in this project. Budapest Airport has developed into a leading regional air cargo gateway for Central and Eastern Europe, and its cargo business recorded strong growth in 2025, reaching 426,519 tons, an increase of 42.3% over the previous year. To date, the airport has invested €80 million in the expansion of the BUD Cargo City logistics center, which began operations in 2020 and was expanded to a total area of 42,000 m² in 2023. The center offers fast cargo handling and clearance, and dedicated facilities for temperature-sensitive goods. The CEP business has been developed in close collaboration with courier and freight integrators such as FedEx, UPS and DHL, which have invested in modern transshipment facilities at the airport. UPS’s main logistics center for the Budapest area is located in Vecsés, close to Budapest Airport. This facility serves as the headquarters for UPS Hungary and the country’s main transshipment hub for packages and cargo. How relations between the United States and Europe will develop remains to be seen. New wars and crises around the world are causing new tensions. The old-world order no longer applies, and so both political and economic relations must be realigned. Europe has moved closer together to strengthen free trade, democratic values, and the independence of the EU. New markets and partnerships are being sought, presenting major challenges but also new opportunities for the logistics industry.

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