Administration announces temporary waiver

The White House announced a temporary suspension of the Jones Act for a 60-day period, a move it says is intended to blunt an abrupt rise in energy costs tied to recent developments in the Middle East.

Context of recent strikes and stated objective

The waiver follows joint strikes carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran nearly three weeks earlier. Officials framed those actions as part of an effort to stop Iran’s progress on nuclear capabilities, and the Administration linked the military activity to a subsequent surge in energy prices.

What the Jones Act requires

The Jones Act governs domestic shipping between U.S. ports. Under the statute, cargo moved between American ports must be transported on vessels that are built in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, registered under the U.S. flag, and crewed predominantly by U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents.

Administration rationale and official statement

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on social media that President Trump places the American public first and that the temporary waiver is designed to keep oil and other energy supplies moving to communities across the country during disruptions. Wright added that the measure should help ease short-term upward pressure on oil prices as the Administration works to lower costs.

Recent market moves and official data

The Administration’s concern about price spikes is supported by Energy Information Administration figures released earlier in the week. The national average retail price for diesel reached $5.071 per gallon in the most recent week of reporting.

At the same time, the U.S. benchmark for crude, West Texas Intermediate, climbed by roughly $25 to $35 per barrel — an increase of about 30% to 50% — to trading levels between roughly $90 and more than $100 per barrel over the approximately three-week period since the Iran-related hostilities began.

White House intent to ease supply constraints

According to reporting from CNBC, the Administration told the network the waiver is meant to stabilize oil markets while the Iran conflict continues. Officials said the action will permit vital commodities — including oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal — to move freely to U.S. ports for the 60-day duration, and that the Administration remains committed to strengthening critical supply chains.

Maritime unions issue strong opposition

A broad coalition of U.S.-based maritime labor unions responded with a joint statement condemning the waiver. The coalition included the following organizations:

• American Maritime Officers
• American Radio Association
• International Organization of Masters, Mates and Pilots
• Marine Firemen’s Union
• Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association
• Maritime Trades Department, AFL-CIO
• Sailors’ Union of the Pacific
• Seafarers International Union
• Transportation Trades Department, AFL-CIO

Unions' national security and economic concerns

The unions argued the sweeping waiver undercuts national security, harms military readiness and shifts important maritime work to foreign operators. Their statement said Jones Act waivers are supposed to meet a strict legal standard and historically have been granted only for narrow, clearly defined national security emergencies when U.S.-flag capacity is demonstrably unavailable.

Economic critique from maritime labor

Maritime labor leaders said the waiver will do little to lower pump prices, noting that gasoline costs are driven primarily by the global crude market. They cited multiple analyses indicating domestic coastal shipping contributes less than one cent per gallon to retail fuel prices and warned that any small savings are unlikely to reach consumers and instead would benefit foreign shipping interests while displacing American maritime jobs.

Call for reversal and alternative solutions

The unions urged the Administration to rescind the waiver and to collaborate with affected parties on measures to tackle energy costs that do not compromise American employment, national security, or the long-term health of the U.S. maritime industrial base.

Expert view on practical barriers to the waiver

Jock O’Connell, an economist at the Pacific Maritime Shipping Association, described significant logistical and regulatory hurdles that could limit the waiver’s short-term effectiveness. He noted that finding or redeploying suitable vessels and hiring crews would be difficult within the 60-day window.

Specific operational and regulatory obstacles

O’Connell highlighted several practical impediments:

• Owners would need to identify or reassign ships from existing services.
• Crew hiring and deployment would be required for any non-U.S.-flagged vessels to operate on U.S. trades.
• The U.S. Coast Guard would likely inspect vessels and certify officers before they could carry cargo to U.S. ports.
• Environmental regulations may rule out the use of many older vessels and barges.

Potential timeline mismatch

O’Connell cautioned that by the time foreign owners and operators completed required inspections, certifications and compliance steps, the 60-day waiver period could already have expired, limiting any intended short-term relief.

February import totals and annual decline

Containerized freight destined for the United States declined again in February, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported. Imports reached 2.19 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in February, a 5.3% drop from the same month a year earlier and the sixth straight month of annual declines.

Monthly TEU sequence since July

The decline continues a multi-month slide that included the following monthly import totals:

• July: 3.01 million TEU (first month above 3 million TEU)
• August: 2.90 million TEU
• September: 2.72 million TEU
• October: 2.71 million TEU
• November: 2.63 million TEU
• December: 2.32 million TEU
• January: 2.42 million TEU (down 5.4% annually)
• February: 2.19 million TEU (down 5.3% annually)

S&P Global Market Intelligence noted July's higher volume followed a June decline and coincided with importers adjusting sourcing after the White House imposed reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which took effect on August 7.

Year-to-date comparison through February

On a year-to-date basis through February, total U.S.-bound imports amounted to 4.87 million TEU, a 5.4% decrease compared with the same period a year earlier.

Tariff rulings and immediate policy actions

The firm said tariff-related uncertainty influenced February results. A recent Supreme Court decision found the legality of the White House's IEEPA tariffs lacking, and that development was followed by the imposition of 10% Section 122 tariffs for 150 days. Those legal and policy shifts factored into import patterns in February.

Two-tiered import behavior across sectors

S&P Global Market Intelligence described the month's activity as two-fold: industrial-focused imports fell sharply while consumer-focused shipments showed signs of recovery. The firm highlighted a sequential January-to-February rise of 5.4% in seasonal discretionary items such as electronics and leisure goods, which it said may reflect concerns about higher future tariffs dating back to the third quarter of 2025.

Detailed sector breakdown

Industry-specific movements in February included pronounced declines in capital and material imports and mixed results elsewhere:

• Capital goods: down 28.6%
• Materials: down 16.9%
• Auto-based imports: up 6.6%
• Consumer staples (food and personal care): down 11.4%
• Consumer discretionary (apparel, appliances, electronics): up 6.1%

Analysis and comments from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Chris Rogers, Head of Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told LM that February's results were stronger than the team originally forecast. Their initial projection expected a decline in the low double-digits, but the actual 5.3% drop signaled unexpected consumer-side resilience.

Rogers attributed some of the outperformance to autos and auto parts, where tariffs have been in place long enough for supply chains to stabilize. He said capital goods and materials reflected a "tariff hangover" effect more in line with expectations. He also noted February benefitted from timing effects around a later-than-normal Lunar New Year, which shifted some shipments into the month, and observed that tariffs implemented during February did not affect shipping decisions made in December and January.

Near-term outlook, tariff effects and regional shifts

With the 10% Section 122 tariffs in effect, S&P Global Market Intelligence expects March might perform better than February. Rogers explained that some importers shipping from China and the ASEAN region will temporarily face a 10% tariff rather than the previous 18%–20%, encouraging renewed front-loading of inventories ahead of future tariff changes.

Regional trade patterns in February showed a continued surge from ASEAN, with imports from that bloc up 21.8% year over year, while imports from mainland China fell 12.4% year over year.

FTR releases new SCI edition with stark warning

Freight transportation consultancy FTR issued a new edition of its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) and cautioned that the index could soon reflect what the firm described as “the most unfavorable market conditions ever for shippers.”

What the Shippers Conditions Index measures

The SCI is a primary logistics indicator that gauges freight market health for shippers by combining several key elements. It synthesizes data on rates, capacity and fuel to produce a single score that signals market tightness or looseness.

• Positive scores: indicate favorable conditions and greater carrier supply
• Negative scores: show tighter capacity and more challenging conditions for shippers
• Readings near zero: represent a neutral market and often fluctuate with economic shifts

Recent volatility and drivers of change

FTR noted the SCI has been volatile, moving toward tougher conditions when capacity tightens and improving as capacity eases. The index reacts to events such as spikes in fuel prices and regulatory changes, and FTR advised shippers to closely monitor trends for potential rate movements and bottlenecks.

Near-term forecast points to a four-year low

The firm said its near-term forecast expected the SCI to decline to its lowest level in four years. FTR emphasized that a combination of soaring fuel costs and a tightening freight market could produce the most unfavorable shipper conditions on record.

February reading outlook and geopolitical context

Before the US-Israel joint attack on Iran, FTR’s forecast predicted the February SCI reading would be lower than January’s -5.0, which was the weakest reading since July 2022. The firm flagged that geopolitical developments could affect market conditions and the index trajectory.

Record low reference and diesel price comparisons

FTR pointed to March 2022’s -23.1 as the lowest SCI reading on record, attributing that result to persistently difficult truck freight market conditions and an unprecedented $1.15 rise in diesel prices over a two-week span at that time. The firm added that the $0.96 diesel increase seen in the first week of March exceeds the March 2022 increase, and noted that performance in the coming weeks remained uncertain.

Industry perspective from FTR’s trucking lead

FTR’s vice president of trucking, Avery Vise, summarized the firm’s concern and context around current market dynamics.

“We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers, though the freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022,” said Avery Vise. “However, the freight market then had started to cool from 2021’s extreme situation while today’s freight market—especially in trucking—is tightening. If the dramatic rise in diesel prices were to sideline even more capacity, the SCI quite plausibly could become even more unfavorable than it was in early 2022.”

What shippers should watch next

FTR’s analysis underscores the importance for shippers to track capacity levels, diesel price movements and regulatory or geopolitical developments that can quickly alter the SCI. The firm’s forecast and recent fuel price behavior suggest the market could continue to tighten, with implications for rates and available capacity.