ShipMatrix: Major carriers sustain high Cyber Week on-time delivery rates

ShipMatrix releases Cyber Week delivery findings

ShipMatrix, a subsidiary of Pittsburgh-based SJ Consulting, published recent data showing that major parcel carriers maintained strong on-time delivery performance during the 2025 Cyber Week.

The company issued the analysis after examining carrier results for the peak holiday period and comparing them with the previous year.

How ShipMatrix defines Cyber Week and parcel mix

ShipMatrix defines Cyber Week as the seven-day period from December 1 through December 7. During that span, networks handled in excess of 100 million parcels per day.

The firm notes that more than 80% of those daily parcels were holiday gifts destined for residential addresses, underscoring the period’s importance to seasonal deliveries.

On-time delivery rates for the big three carriers

ShipMatrix measured on-time performance (OTP) using end-of-day commits for express shipments and allowing an additional day for ground transit. The company reported high OTP figures for the three major domestic carriers:

• FedEx: 98.3% OTP (98.7% in 2024)

• UPS: 98.9% OTP (98.9% in 2024)

• USPS: 97.2% OTP (97.4% in 2024)

High Cyber Week on-time delivery percentages demonstrate the capacity resilience of legacy logistics networks. However, maintaining strict arrival commitments requires shippers to constantly benchmark transport partners against standardized benchmarks. Monitoring carrier quality metrics empowers retailers to select the most dependable delivery networks during peak volume spikes.

Total parcel volumes handled across networks

The analysis covered parcels processed not only by FedEx, UPS and the United States Postal Service but also by Amazon, Walmart, private fleets, regional carriers and last-mile providers.

Across those networks, ShipMatrix reported that carriers collectively moved more than 568 million parcels during Cyber Week, which it said was about 30% higher than typical off-peak volumes. The firm described this scale as evidence of careful planning and preparation for peak spikes.

Advice to shoppers and retailers about late orders

ShipMatrix warned that strong overall Cyber Week performance should not encourage last-minute ordering. The firm advised that orders placed after December 17 will likely require premium shipping options and still might not arrive in time for Christmas in the face of weather-related disruptions.

ShipMatrix additionally noted that weather-related delays are excluded from the on-time percentages it publishes, so those risks remain for late holiday shipments.

Why measuring on-time performance has grown more complex

ShipMatrix President Satish Jindel told Logistics Management that tracking and reporting OTP has become significantly more challenging in recent years. He said the task is roughly five times larger than it was two to three years ago and nearly double what it was in 2024.

Measuring on-time performance has become increasingly intricate due to multi-variable transit rules and changing commit times. Logistics managers rely on comprehensive analytics to navigate lane-specific variables across FedEx, UPS, and regional carriers. Utilizing advanced data freight tracking helps businesses predict potential delays and maintain customer delivery expectations.

Jindel attributed that increase to a web of more complex rules defining commit and transit times—variables affected by lanes, distance and days in transit across FedEx, UPS and USPS operations.

He illustrated the measurement approach with delivery timing: express services are evaluated against end-of-day delivery, and a parcel with a 3:00 p.m. commit that arrives at 3:30 p.m. can still be treated within the day’s delivery window in the context of those metrics. Carriers may also allow an extra transit day for ground service to reflect typical customer expectations during the holiday period, but in the final days before Christmas every additional day becomes critical for consumers.

Retailer-led delivery and competitive impacts on legacy carriers

Jindel said growing delivery capacity from nontraditional providers is eroding volume for legacy carriers. He pointed to examples where retailers fulfill online orders from local stores for same- or next-day service and use gig-economy drivers or local delivery apps to complete the last mile.

Walmart’s increasing use of store-based fulfillment and third-party couriers such as Doordash or Uber Eats for home delivery can divert shipments away from larger carriers like FedEx, reducing their volumes and revenue. ShipMatrix noted that when shippers also become carriers — similar to Amazon’s strategy — they turn into direct competitors.

Peak season last-mile delivery success relies heavily on clear shipping terms and transparent cost structures for buyers. Mismanaged duty payments or unexpected clearance delays can severely undermine seasonal delivery performance on international orders. Comparing DDP vs DAP terms allows merchants to choose the right delivery model to prevent customs friction during holiday surges.

The firm expects retailers including Costco and Walmart to keep expanding their delivery footprint, creating additional competition for traditional parcel carriers.