February import totals and annual decline

Containerized freight destined for the United States declined again in February, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported. Imports reached 2.19 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in February, a 5.3% drop from the same month a year earlier and the sixth straight month of annual declines.

Monthly TEU sequence since July

The decline continues a multi-month slide that included the following monthly import totals:

• July: 3.01 million TEU (first month above 3 million TEU)
• August: 2.90 million TEU
• September: 2.72 million TEU
• October: 2.71 million TEU
• November: 2.63 million TEU
• December: 2.32 million TEU
• January: 2.42 million TEU (down 5.4% annually)
• February: 2.19 million TEU (down 5.3% annually)

S&P Global Market Intelligence noted July's higher volume followed a June decline and coincided with importers adjusting sourcing after the White House imposed reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which took effect on August 7.

Year-to-date comparison through February

On a year-to-date basis through February, total U.S.-bound imports amounted to 4.87 million TEU, a 5.4% decrease compared with the same period a year earlier.

Tariff rulings and immediate policy actions

The firm said tariff-related uncertainty influenced February results. A recent Supreme Court decision found the legality of the White House's IEEPA tariffs lacking, and that development was followed by the imposition of 10% Section 122 tariffs for 150 days. Those legal and policy shifts factored into import patterns in February.

Two-tiered import behavior across sectors

S&P Global Market Intelligence described the month's activity as two-fold: industrial-focused imports fell sharply while consumer-focused shipments showed signs of recovery. The firm highlighted a sequential January-to-February rise of 5.4% in seasonal discretionary items such as electronics and leisure goods, which it said may reflect concerns about higher future tariffs dating back to the third quarter of 2025.

Detailed sector breakdown

Industry-specific movements in February included pronounced declines in capital and material imports and mixed results elsewhere:

• Capital goods: down 28.6%
• Materials: down 16.9%
• Auto-based imports: up 6.6%
• Consumer staples (food and personal care): down 11.4%
• Consumer discretionary (apparel, appliances, electronics): up 6.1%

Analysis and comments from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Chris Rogers, Head of Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told LM that February's results were stronger than the team originally forecast. Their initial projection expected a decline in the low double-digits, but the actual 5.3% drop signaled unexpected consumer-side resilience.

Rogers attributed some of the outperformance to autos and auto parts, where tariffs have been in place long enough for supply chains to stabilize. He said capital goods and materials reflected a "tariff hangover" effect more in line with expectations. He also noted February benefitted from timing effects around a later-than-normal Lunar New Year, which shifted some shipments into the month, and observed that tariffs implemented during February did not affect shipping decisions made in December and January.

Near-term outlook, tariff effects and regional shifts

With the 10% Section 122 tariffs in effect, S&P Global Market Intelligence expects March might perform better than February. Rogers explained that some importers shipping from China and the ASEAN region will temporarily face a 10% tariff rather than the previous 18%–20%, encouraging renewed front-loading of inventories ahead of future tariff changes.

Regional trade patterns in February showed a continued surge from ASEAN, with imports from that bloc up 21.8% year over year, while imports from mainland China fell 12.4% year over year.

Conflict forces carriers to stop Middle East bookings

Cargo backlogs are beginning to accumulate at major logistics hubs after ocean carriers suspended bookings to the Middle East amid the military clashes involving Iran, the U.S. and Israel. The booking halts are among several wide-ranging consequences identified by Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express, as the conflict reverberates across global supply chains.

Extent of vessel congestion at the Strait of Hormuz

Nixon told attendees at TPM26 by S&P Global that roughly 750 ships are currently waiting because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Of those vessels, about 100 are container ships, a figure that translates to roughly 10% of the world’s container fleet being affected by the disruption.

Rerouting of cargo and alternative ports

Vessels that intended to transit the Strait of Hormuz are being forced to turn back and head to alternate hubs. Nixon cited Colombo, Sri Lanka, among other ports, as destinations where ships will have to reposition, creating additional voyage time and logistical complexity for shippers and carriers alike.

Strain on Asian export hubs and terminal operations

Exports from Asia are expected to bear the heaviest burden of the disruption. Major regional transshipment and gateway ports, including the Port of Singapore, will begin to lose operational fluidity as a result. Nixon warned that the situation will prompt an immediate stop to new bookings for some sailings and can freeze cargo movements already in terminals.

Operational headaches for ports and rising freight costs

Nixon said the build-up will create specific challenges for port operators managing yard space and terminal throughput, while carriers will face the task of prioritizing empty containers and reshuffling other cargo. He also expects upward pressure on freight rates as capacity tightens.

“So, that's going to give a few headaches to the port operators in terms of their stack utilizations, the fluidity of their terminal, and then carriers are going to have to try to prioritize empties and move other cargo around,” ONE’s CEO said. “It'll inevitably have an impact on freight rates.”

Fuel prices and the risk of an oil shock

Nixon noted that fuel prices are already climbing amid the conflict. He warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond 25 days, oil and gas producers in the Middle East would start curtailing output because they would have nowhere to store or export hydrocarbons.

“They've got nowhere to put the oil and the gas,” Nixon said, adding that the market could see a significant price shock and that $100 a barrel is a plausible outcome if disruptions persist.

Source and licensing information

This report summarizes remarks made by Jeremy Nixon at TPM26 and is based on reporting by Kelly Stroh for Supply Chain Dive. The original story was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. For licensing inquiries, contact legal@industrydive.com.

Supreme Court ruling prompted immediate tariff pivot

The Supreme Court found the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs unlawful. In response, the White House quickly replaced that authority with a 10 percent duty under Section 122 for a 150-day term, scheduled to expire in late July.

Officials justified the temporary levy as a response to a serious international payment imbalance and a growing U.S. balance-of-payments deficit, as well as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing and to slow the flow of fentanyl across the U.S. border from Canada and Mexico.

USTR launches Section 301 investigations into excess capacity

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) this week opened investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The probes target what the agency described as structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors abroad.

USTR said the inquiries will assess whether foreign acts, policies, or practices are unreasonable or discriminatory and whether they burden or restrict U.S. commerce.

Countries and economies named in the investigations

The USTR listed multiple economies as subjects of the Section 301 reviews. The agency said it will examine industrial policies and production practices in these markets:

• China
• European Union
• Singapore
• Switzerland
• Norway
• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Cambodia
• Thailand
• Korea
• Vietnam
• Taiwan
• Bangladesh
• Mexico
• Japan
• India

USTR frames probes as defense of U.S. industrial base

USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer said the investigations reflect a determination not to sacrifice U.S. industry to foreign overproduction. He portrayed the reviews as part of a broader push to reshore critical supply chains and create well‑paying manufacturing jobs across the United States.

Greer argued that structural excess capacity in several partner economies has produced goods beyond domestic demand, displacing U.S. output and deterring investment that would otherwise expand American manufacturing. He warned that the United States has lost significant production capacity in many sectors and lagged behind foreign competitors.

Industry reaction and legal challenges to Section 301 measures

Industry advisers cautioned that Section 301 tariffs, which address unfair trade practices, can be difficult to challenge successfully in court. Pete Mento, Director of Global Trade Management Services at Baker Tilly, told LM that the mechanics of 301 actions make judicial challenges complex.

Mento noted that the government has been collecting information on issues such as forced labor and other unfair practices, an evidence base that could strengthen future 301 cases. He said issues like forced or slave labor, currency manipulation, and intellectual property infringement could all form the factual foundation for U.S. action under Section 301.

Investigation process, timeline, and possible remedies

Mento and USTR officials explained that if the investigations find policies or practices that unreasonably distort trade, the United States could respond with new duties or other measures.

The formal process outlined includes the following stages:

1. Investigation
2. Public comments
3. Hearings
4. Findings
5. Imposition of new duties (tariffs)

USTR said a docket for public comments will open on March 17 and that hearings will begin on May 5.

Analysts see limited broader economic impact but note other risks

In a research note, Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, suggested the overall economic effect of the recent trade moves may be muted. He said duty rates tied to IEEPA are likely to be replaced by other programs that deliver functionally similar rates.

Rogers added that the global economy has so far proved relatively resilient to tariffs, and that larger near-term risks may stem from uncertainty related to conflict in the Middle East and resulting pressures on oil prices.