Truckload freight rates are favoring carriers after a long hiatus, according to the March Signal Report, which was recently issued by DAT iQ, the analytics subsidiary of DAT Freight & Analytics, with the firm explaining that market tightening, since December, “is real and will continue.” The firm explained that, in February, dry van and temperature-controlled markets experienced their largest three-month spot rates increase going back to Spring 2020, coming in at 21% and 13%, respectively, with the caveat that this data does not extend through February 28, when the Iran conflict began, while also noting that the conflict has, and will continue to, send rates up and also continue to trim down capacity. The pricing data in this report is based on actual loads moved by large retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders in DAT iQ’s shipper consortium. The March Signal Report issued the following for February: Looking ahead, the 12-month forecast from Dat iQ expects dry van contract and spot rates to head up by 8% and 12%, respectively, with the company telling shippers that are still operating on 2025 pricing, the window to secure favorable pricing terms is “probably closed,” coming in before the fuel cost gains start to appear in the numbers. In an interview with LM, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo that there are a few key things to consider in looking at contract and spot rates, in terms of where things may be headed. “On the spot side, there is seasonality coming up and depending on how the spring and summer shipping season go, there are going to be some seasonal effects there,” he said. “I do think there is some upward mobility in spot rates, for sure. But we have this interesting conundrum where spot rates are up about 20% year-over-year, and New Rate Differential is up 7%-to-10%, depending on what sector you look at. But paid contract rates are dead flat. That creates this massive amount of tension, where the longer spot rates stay elevated, it is eventually going to drag the paid contract rates up, and normally that only lags by a couple of months. We are probably at a couple of quarters now and it has not pulled the contract rates up.” One reason for that, he said, is that a lot of the spot market disruption was acute, in that it was due to weather and fuel, leaving shippers not keen on making long-term business decisions, nor upsetting their entire routing guide until they see what the market looks like later, when the weather disruptions are not as severe and the Iran conflict is possibly over. To that end, as an example, Adamo said that some large shippers are postponing some of their bid events until later in the year, and the ones that signed deals in the fourth quarter are willing to absorb a spot market loss somewhat, as opposed to doing a rebid during a time of volatility. “A large Fortune 500 shipper would explain right now it is struggling to understand fuel, it did not budget for this,” said Adamo. “And 30% of a shipper’s freight spend has gone up by 50% in rough numbers. Honestly, the rates they are paying in the spot market right now is probably the least concerning. You are seeing bids now from the first quarter that are coming in 7%-to-10% higher, which serves as a good sign of things normalizing.” Looking ahead, Adamo said that the question remains in regards to if spot rates remain high enough to drag contract rates all the way up or are they likely to meet somewhere in the middle this summer, with DAT’s baseline contract rate forecast calling for contract rates to come in around 10%-to-12% higher annually. And while it may be too late to get more favorable terms, he explained it is not likely there will be a penalty for waiting one quarter, which is what is happening with shippers pushing bids out. “There is a higher probability it goes down a little bit rather than go up a little more,” he said. “They are sort of viewing it like they are going to wait it out and see if this rally peters out a little bit post-spring. But some of these big-box retailers have been running bids in the second quarter for decades—and for some of them to push this into the third quarter during the buildup to the retail shipping peak is a pretty big gamble on their part, both in terms of internal process and also where the market may be headed. A March 2026 rate snapshot from DAT, not in the DAT iQ report, found that March dry van, reefer, and flatbed rates came in at $1.99 (up 1.5% annually), $2.30 (flat annually) and $2.52 (down 1.6% annually), respectively, with spot rates, for the three modes, at $1.81 (up 13% annually), $2.19 (up 17.7% annually), and $2.23 (up 7.7% annually).

Dive Brief:

• Amazon will soon levy a 3.5% fuel and logistics-related surcharge on fulfillment services for third-party sellers as the e-commerce giant battles elevated operating costs, according to an announcement Thursday.
• Starting April 17, the surcharge will be applied to fulfillment fees for the company's Fulfillment by Amazon service in the U.S. and Canada, in addition to Remote Fulfillment with FBA shipping from the U.S. to Canada, Mexico and Brazil. On May 2, the surcharge will also begin applying to Buy with Prime in the U.S. and Multi-Channel Fulfillment services in the U.S. and Canada.
• The surcharge, which Amazon did not provide an end date for, is calculated based on seller fulfillment fees rather than the sale price of the items, according to Amazon. The 3.5% levy equates to an additional $0.17 per unit for U.S. Fulfillment by Amazon services, although it varies based on item size and dimensions.

Dive Insight:

Amazon is joining the list of major logistics providers that are hitting shippers with price hikes and elevated surcharges as fuel costs rise amid the war in Iran. UPS and FedEx's fuel surcharge rates continue to climb, and the U.S. Postal Service plans to launch an 8% temporary price hike on package shipping services April 26.

"We have absorbed these increased costs so far," Amazon said in its announcement. "However, similar to other major carriers, when costs remain elevated, we implement temporary surcharges on our fulfillment fees to recover a portion of the actual cost increases we are experiencing."

Amazon added that its 3.5% price bump "is meaningfully lower than other major carriers" due to work it has already done to lower costs. In recent years, the company has overhauled its inbound fulfillment processes, pushed for order consolidation into fewer boxes and shifted from a national to a regional network model in the U.S.

Some e-commerce experts are skeptical that the surcharge will be a short-term increase. Noah Wickham, VP of sales and marketing at Amazon seller agency My Amazon Guy, said in a LinkedIn post that he expects the company will "keep it regardless" even if fuel prices fall and stabilize.

It's not the first time Amazon has levied a surcharge to account for rising fuel costs. In 2022, the company implemented a 5% fuel and inflation surcharge on Fulfillment by Amazon services. This year, Amazon increased fees on Fulfillment by Amazon services in January, averaging an additional $0.08 per unit sold.

This article was written by Max Garland from Supply Chain Dive and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to legal@industrydive.com.

Many companies that source products internationally and rely on ocean transportation to the U.S. do not have an established strategy for obtaining optimal rates and service. While some organizations have an established international logistics group, others view international shipping more as a task—or as a type of “utility cost”—where ocean transportation is treated simply as a spot-market expense. However, establishing a structured and strategic approach to managing inbound ocean shipments can yield significant benefits in cost control, service performance, and inventory management. In fact, a well-designed ocean transportation strategy provides the framework to shift from reactive to proactive logistics planning. Now, let’s consider some of the key factors. 1. Volume projections The very first agenda item is to forecast shipping volumes. Interestingly, knowing exactly where suppliers’ shipping locations are located is not always apparent to companies. However, it’s necessary to identify origin and destination locations, the total number of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and any shipment seasonality. This information is vital when sharing projections with carriers to negotiate volume commitments and rates. 2. Contracting vs. spot market strategy Some companies ship exclusively via the spot market, meaning these rates are determined by the supply and demand for sailing slots at a specific time. While this strategy might work for companies that ship a limited number of ocean containers, it’s generally not effective for companies that move higher volumes of shipments and TEUs. Spot ocean container rates can fluctuate significantly. For example, when companies attempted to beat tariff implementations applied to imports, spot container rates skyrocketed. However, once the tariffs were implemented, spot rates dropped drastically. Fixed annual contracts provide more stable rates and are less sensitive to market swings, allowing for more accurate management of an ocean transportation budget. 3. Ocean carrier selection and diversification Ocean carriers manage their own operations, including vessel scheduling, maintenance, and cargo handling. It’s essential to conduct thorough research to establish clear criteria for carrier selection. Key factors to evaluate include cost, transit time, service reliability, geographic coverage, and port accessibility. To mitigate risk and ensure service continuity, companies should avoid over-reliance on a single carrier and instead pursue a diversified carrier strategy. 4. Freight forwarder and NVOCC relationships Freight forwarders act as intermediaries, coordinating multiple aspects of the international shipping process on behalf of the shipper. Their services typically include arranging transportation, preparing documentation, and providing additional support such as customs brokerage. When evaluating freight forwarders, it’s critical to consider more than just cost—factors such as customer service quality, shipment visibility tools, and issue resolution capabilities are equally important. Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers (NVOCCs) function similarly to ocean carriers, despite not owning or operating their own vessels. They issue their own bills of lading and assume responsibility for managing shipments from origin to destination. As with freight forwarders, selecting the right NVOCC requires evaluating service reliability, global coverage, and their ability to manage logistics across complex trade lanes. 5. Lane and port strategy Once supplier and customer locations have been defined and projected shipment volumes are estimated, it becomes essential to optimize origin and destination ports to balance both cost and service. Developing a port strategy should include primary and alternate ports to account for potential disruptions such as congestion, labor disputes, or seasonal delays. Port decisions must align closely with inventory management and purchasing strategies. For instance, a shipment originating in Asia may be routed through West Coast ports, followed by inland transportation via rail or drayage to the final destination. Alternatively, the same shipment could be routed through East Coast ports. While this typically involves longer transit times, it may offer cost or service advantages depending on market conditions and the location of the final delivery point. Route selection should consider transit time, rate variability, and network efficiency to ensure optimal supply chain performance. 6. Performance metrics and KPIs As previously noted, a freight forwarder that provides visibility into shipments is important. Companies should use the technology available to develop meaningful key performance indicators (KPIs). Monitoring shipment service levels and carrier performance is vital to holding partners accountable. Common KPIs include on-time delivery, dwell time, container utilization, cost per unit, and container detention and demurrage charges. 7. Risk management and contingency planning Proactive risk management is essential to maintaining a resilient supply chain. Disruptions such as labor strikes, severe weather, geopolitical instability, or unexpected market shifts can significantly impact ocean transportation. To mitigate these risks, organizations should develop comprehensive contingency plans that include alternative ports of entry, backup carriers, and flexible routing options. In some cases, it may be necessary to expedite shipments or delay them strategically to ensure alignment with inventory and purchasing strategies. A well-prepared contingency plan should account for a wide range of potential disruptions—including geopolitical events, pandemics, carrier alliance shifts, and port closures. Having predefined protocols in place allows for faster decision-making and minimizes the impact of unforeseen events on cost, service, and overall supply chain performance Developing and implementing a structured ocean freight strategy enables organizations to transition from a reactive approach to a proactive, strategic model for managing international logistics. This shift enhances financial control, improves service reliability, and strengthens resilience against disruptions. In today’s increasingly complex and dynamic global trade environment, a well-executed ocean transportation strategy is essential for achieving long-term supply chain efficiency and customer satisfaction. Tom Schaefges is a senior project manager with St. Onge Company and has more than 25 years of experience in supply chain and logistics across both corporate and consulting roles. His industry experience includes work in food service, retail, heavy manufacturing, transportation, food production, and third-party logistics. He can be reached at [email protected]