Market comparisons and an uneasy parallel

During an October appearance on 60 Minutes, journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin suggested the current market rally resembles a modern "Roaring 20s," driven largely by heavy investment in artificial intelligence. That observation framed a central question for 2025: how much of the apparent economic strength is supported by sustainable fundamentals and how much rests on speculative capital?

The year’s prevailing theme of uncertainty

Throughout research and interviews for this year-in-review, one word came up repeatedly: uncertainty. For many in logistics and transportation, 2025 felt like a repeat of 2024—ongoing volatility in demand, policy and operations kept executives cautious about opening new facilities, committing capital and expanding workforces.

AI’s promise and the data challenge

Bill Hutchinson, a veteran supply chain executive and former SVP of logistics at WestRock, argued that AI represents one of the most significant productivity opportunities in years but warned that companies must first fix their data foundations to capture those gains.

Hutchinson emphasized that data quality has been a persistent issue requiring sustained investment and recommended choosing technology partners carefully rather than adopting every new vendor promising a quick fix. He also noted that trade compliance became exceptionally demanding in 2025 because of rapid tariff shifts, calling compliance staff "deserving of combat pay."

On nearshoring, Hutchinson said the trend is real but questioned whether the U.S. labor force is prepared to absorb the industrial jobs it could create, and he noted that strained relations with Canada and Mexico are undercutting the potential for continental stability.

Shipper perspectives on ocean, trucking and parcel

An anonymous chief supply chain officer at a major U.S. retailer described global freight as generally smoother than expected, with ocean capacity at Asian origins relatively easy to secure and few arrival port delays.

The executive predicted that the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger could simplify transcontinental intermodal flows, though it would have limited impact on retail freight. They characterized the trucking market as mixed—some carriers aggressively pursuing volume while others defended rates—and said the end of de minimis exemptions eased parcel congestion. Despite low unemployment, peak-season hiring remained steady and widespread labor shortages did not materialize.

Motor carrier segment and the state of trucking

Industry veteran John Larkin, operating partner for transportation and logistics at Clarendon Capital, described demand as mediocre, driven by weak industrial production, soft home sales and flat retail volumes. He said capacity is not exiting the industry the way it has in previous cycles.

Larkin observed segment differences: dry van has been hit hardest, refrigerated and flatbed have fared better though still weak, intermodal looks strong as shippers try to cut costs, and tank traffic is soft for chemicals but steady for refined products. He also argued that provisions encouraging capital expenditure in recent legislation could spur domestic investment and said fears that tariffs would trigger a recession and revive inflation have so far been overstated.

On electrification and automation, Larkin said battery electric vehicle momentum has slowed due to supply constraints for critical minerals, limited power generation capacity given data center demand, and unfavorable economics without subsidies. He added that technology adoption in trucking—especially autonomous trucks and AI-driven back-office automation—is poised to reshape the industry.

Domingo Amunategui, VP of logistics at Graphic Packaging, described domestic trucking as "surprisingly flat," noting that anticipated demand rebounds never materialized. He said tariff-driven panic temporarily increased shipments as manufacturers rushed cargo ahead of tariff deadlines, but that inventory spike was quickly absorbed into excess capacity.

LTL and parcel market dynamics with data points

Satish Jindel of SJ Consulting Group reported modest contraction in less-than-truckload (LTL): total market size decreased from $53.2 billion in 2023 to $52.8 billion in 2024 (about a 1% decline) and was estimated to fall around 2% in 2025 to roughly $51.9 billion.

• Unionized carriers’ revenue share among the Top 10 LTL carriers dropped from 15% in 2023 to 13% in 2024 after Yellow’s closure in August 2023.
• Public carriers’ share of the LTL market fell from 61% in 2023 to 57% in 2024.
• LTL terminals increased by 11% in 2024 to 3,216 as many former Yellow terminals resumed operations under new ownership, and terminal counts rose further to 3,330 by August 2025.
• Excess terminal capacity contributed to an LTL operating margin decline from 14.3% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024.

Jindel’s ShipMatrix unit outlined parcel-market trends: parcel revenues climbed 4.1% from $181 billion in 2023 to $188 billion in 2024, and total packages handled rose 3.9% from 22.9 billion to 23.8 billion.

• That equates to about 90.9 million parcels delivered per day in 2024 versus 88.1 million the prior year.
• Top-four parcel carriers (FedEx, UPS, USPS and Amazon) saw total volumes decline roughly 1% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, even as the overall parcel market was projected to grow about 2.9% in 2025 to 24.5 billion packages.
• Amazon now delivers more parcels than any of the individual Big Three carriers, and the market is fragmenting as large retailers such as Walmart, Target and Costco expand private delivery networks while startups pursue gig-worker models.

Intermodal and rail: changing flows and merger news

Larry Gross highlighted the strength of international intermodal in 2024 when ISO container movements surged—up 13.9% for North America in 2024 versus roughly 5.5% year-to-date in 2025. Much of the 2024 strength was driven by retailers pulling forward shipments to avoid tariffs or strike disruption and by a heavier West Coast import share amid Red Sea risks.

Gross said the import rush in early 2025—fueled by tariff deadlines—peaked in July and then tapered, leaving shippers fatigued by frequent policy shifts.

Ted Prince, an intermodal veteran, said inland ports dependent on trade faced tariff-related volume declines and that economic and trade uncertainty discouraged consumer purchases of large-ticket items, which in turn dampened freight volumes. Recent surveys suggested rail service has been adequate but not stressed by volume surges, and intermodal was sometimes viewed as more expensive and slower than truck.

Rail coverage focused on Union Pacific’s announced intent to acquire Norfolk Southern. Tony Hatch of ABH Consulting described 2025 as another subdued freight year—still a freight recession with muted volumes—and said nearshoring gains and many green initiatives have not yet produced meaningful rail growth.

Jason Kuehn of Oliver Wyman noted that through the third quarter U.S. rail traffic was up 2.1% year-to-date for carload and up 3.5% for intermodal, while North American totals showed smaller gains. He said carload growth is largely driven by coal and grain, sectors not highly competitive with truck, and that activist investors remain influential in the rail sector.

Ocean freight turbulence and tariff-driven volatility

Phil Damas of Drewry Shipping Consultants described 2025 for ocean freight as a year of tariff-induced volatility, rising port charges and irregular transport volumes that led to sharp rate swings and operational uncertainty.

After a robust start to the year, the trans-Pacific eastbound surge evaporated in Q2: Asia-to-North America container volumes rose 8% year-over-year in Q1 as importers front-loaded shipments ahead of tariffs, then fell about 7% in Q2 as demand cooled. Drewry and the National Retail Federation expected further declines through year-end as trade-policy shifts continued to affect global lanes.

Blank sailings increased sharply: Project44 reported that U.S.–China route cancellations reached levels not seen since the early pandemic, with October blanks projected to exceed 2020 highs. Project44 researcher Bart De Myunck said carriers are canceling sailings not as an emergency response but to protect rate stability amid tariff distortions.

Despite disruption, sourcing shifts away from high-tariff origins such as China are likely to take years, because the extra costs of relocating production and logistics are being absorbed across manufacturers, importers and consumers. Veteran carrier executive Peter Keller summed up 2025 as a year of profound disruption that will take time to settle and will make for a bumpy transition ahead.