Going back to late 2023, when an ongoing series of attacks on the Red Sea shipping lane by the Yemeni Houthi pirates in response to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict took hold, it led to another layer of global supply chain uncertainty on various fronts. That included things like its potential duration, impact on rates, supply chain strategies, and contingency plans, among other factors. But there have recently been some signs that the situation may be starting to take some cautious, albeit positive, steps. This is something that would be viewed as welcomed news, especially when considering that prior to the attacks the Red Sea/Suez Canal shipping route saw 10%-to-15% of global maritime trade moving through it, according to industry estimates. What’s more, it also led to increased freight rates, longer transit times, and lower volumes, which negatively impact things like supply chain reliability and port schedules, too. Which led many carriers to pause all vessels bound for the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden and have them diverted south around the Cape of Good Hope. But based on developments in recent weeks, it appears that Red Sea shipping activity may be returning, to a point. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, whom collectively comprise the Genimi Cooperation ocean carrier alliance, which covers 29 shared mainliner and 29 shared shuttle services on East-West trade routes, said on February 3 that they have decided to change the routing of one of their shared Gemini Cooperation services, which will now transition through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal and secured by naval assistance. The alliance’s ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean, will take effect on the Red Sea and Suez Canal route in mid-February. “The implementation will be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum, upholding the Genimi Cooperation’s trademark of industry‑leading schedule reliability,” the carriers said. “The highest possible security precautions will be undertaken, as the safety of the crew, the vessels, and the customers’ cargo remains the highest priority of both carriers. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will continue to monitor the security situation in the Middle East region very closely, and any alteration to the Gemini service will remain dependent on the ongoing stability in the Red Sea area and the absence of any escalation in conflicts in the region.” The carriers added that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will continue to monitor the security situation in the Middle East region very closely, and any alteration to the Gemini service will remain dependent on the ongoing stability in the Red Sea area and the absence of any escalation in conflicts in the region. “The safety of the crew, the vessels, and customers’ cargo remains the highest priority, and all necessary security measures will be applied for vessels transiting the area,” they said. “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Lars Jensen, CEO of Copenhagen-based Vespucci Maritime, observed in a February 3 LinkedIn post that unless the situation with the Houthis suddenly deteriorates, this is highly likely to signal the beginning of a gradual return for all carriers over the coming months. A key capacity-related issue for ocean shippers to monitor in 2026 is if normal Red Sea transits resume, a large latent amount of capacity will be released back into the market, worsening overcapacity and driving freight rates sharply lower, according to Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. From a shipper perspective, he noted that, if possible, it makes sense to wait for better visibility before locking in long-term contracts—with the caveat that once the Red Sea fully reopens and insurance premiums normalize, freight rates could drop substantially. Ben Hackett, founder of maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, observed that there are three key issues driving the market right now. First is carrier capacity,” he said. “Ironically, one of the best things that happened to carriers financially was the disruption of the Suez Canal by the Houthis. That forced most vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, which absorbed spare capacity and helped keep freight rates elevated. That dynamic is changing. Some large carriers—particularly CMA and some Chinese lines—are beginning to use the Suez Canal again, mainly for Europe and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. East Coast. With the Houthis announcing a ceasefire, a lot of capacity will be released back into the system, putting downward pressure on freight rates. We’re already seeing that on the Asia–Europe trade and even on the U.S. West Coast.”

Overview of the 2026 ocean freight environment

Global logistics leaders enter 2026 confronting a widening set of trends and unknowns. Key issues include potential court rulings on recent U.S. tariff actions, growing applications of artificial intelligence, mixed macroeconomic indicators, and ongoing geopolitical instability. For shippers the imperative remains the same: anticipate disruption while preparing for sudden changes. Ocean freight is starting the year after an unusually volatile 2025.

How U.S. tariffs and front-loading shaped 2025 flows

Much of last year’s volatility stemmed from the White House’s tariff measures on major trading partners. The implementation, subsequent pauses and delays prompted many importers to accelerate shipments into the U.S. ahead of possible cost increases, generating large swings in volume through 2025.

Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, says tariffs were the dominant influence on ocean shipping last year. He notes that although many expected tariffs to immediately drive consumer inflation, higher import duties have so far had only a limited impact on U.S. consumer prices, while sentiment among consumers remains low.

Damas attributes the delayed price effect to importers pulling forward inventories before tariffs took effect. Those earlier shipments allowed retailers to sell at pre-tariff prices; with those inventories now largely spent, new purchases are beginning to reflect tariff costs and could push prices higher.

Freight-rate dynamics and regional demand differences

Damas emphasizes that freight rates are still mainly determined by the balance between demand and capacity. He points to declining U.S. consumer-goods imports as a demand driver—citing a 7% year-over-year drop in September volumes at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach after several stronger months. Globally, North America has become an outlier, with other regions growing between 5% and 15% while North America falls roughly 5% behind.

Damas expects U.S. container imports to decline for three consecutive quarters through the second quarter of 2026. That outlook underlines the downside pressure on freight rates unless demand recovers or capacity is removed.

Market behavior, rate volatility, and shipper tactics

Jon Monroe, president and founder of Jon Monroe Consulting, describes the market as weak and freight rates as unstable. He says general rate increase (GRI) announcements often dissipate within days. Published rates frequently differ substantially from transacted levels—he gives examples of West Coast rates being quoted around $2,050–$2,100 but trading near $1,700, and East Coast quotes near $2,800 that settle closer to $2,400–$2,500.

As carriers cut rates to chase volume, many shippers have learned to delay shipments when a GRI is announced because they expect it will not hold. That behavior amplifies short-term volatility.

Consumption patterns and rerouting of exports

Monroe points to a concentration of spending at the top end of the income distribution: roughly 80% to 90% of consumer spending is now driven by the top 20% of earners, typically households with incomes above $350,000. That leaves many consumers on the sidelines and dampens demand in categories such as electronics, toys and furniture.

Meanwhile China has not experienced the same degree of weakness, prompting factories to redirect exports away from the U.S. toward Southeast Asia, Mexico, Central and South America and other regions. Monroe says some U.S.-bound volume will be lost and some will be redistributed globally. He also warns that tariffs add administrative complexity, noting that entry summaries already list multiple layers—base duties, fentanyl-related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs—and that the legal outcome remains uncertain.

Rising vessel capacity and the newbuild surge

New vessel capacity is compounding the problem of muted demand. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, says the 2026–2028 period will be especially challenging as a large wave of newbuilds enters service. Approximately 65% to 70% of those ships are ultra-large container vessels of around 25,000 TEU, intensifying pressure on carriers' profitability.

The financial effects are already visible: Maersk has reported weak recent quarters and a soft outlook, while carriers such as OOCL show higher volumes but falling revenues—an indicator of declining freight rates. Drewry’s Damas adds that if normal Red Sea transits resume, a substantial amount of latent capacity would re-enter the market and likely push rates lower as insurance premiums normalize.

Alliances, terminal control and operational models

Carriers now operate within several organized groupings. The market features three major alliances—Gemini Alliance, Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance—while MSC operates at a scale that makes it effectively similar to a single-carrier alliance. Although the first quarter of last year saw cancelled sailings and delays, performance has since improved.

• Gemini Alliance
• Premier Alliance
• Ocean Alliance
• MSC (operating at scale)

Drewry’s Damas says shippers still have choice and capacity. Gemini is testing a hub-and-spoke model that keeps ships departing on schedule rather than waiting for late cargo, and that approach has delivered better on-time performance. Monroe calls the Maersk–Hapag-Lloyd network likely the most reliable because it controls 14 key terminals and already posts schedule reliability above 90%. He adds that other alliances face more terminal-control risk. Monroe also notes MSC’s growing activity in feeder services and vessel orders for those trades.

Contracting choices, MQCs and market volatility

Monroe warns that annual comparisons will be tougher in 2026 because 2025 volumes were pulled forward. While there will be seasonal reorder activity, he expects consumer demand to be softer overall. That will put pressure on carriers to lift spot rates so that contracted rates can sit beneath them; in response, beneficial cargo owners may reduce minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) and lean more on spot markets, which will sustain high volatility.

Longer-term trade patterns and the China plus 10 dynamic

Looking beyond immediate cycles, global trade is shifting from a narrow China–U.S. focus to a broader "China plus 10" framework that includes Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, parts of Eastern Europe and countries in Central and South America. Monroe says China is not being abandoned but is expanding its export footprint. Carriers are adapting their networks to that reality, but the industry-wide oversupply means excess capacity will not be absorbed quickly.

Record trade volumes overshadowed by tariff headlines

Global trade reached more than $2.2 trillion last year, growing roughly 7% over 12 months, but media attention fixated on a different story. In January a new U.S. presidential administration began imposing tariffs on trading partners, and that activity extended through much of 2025.

Tariff rates climbed steeply in many cases, reaching double- and even triple-digit levels for particular country-product combinations. Large producers such as China drew much of the attention, but smaller nations were also targeted and affected.

From predictable duties to a volatile trade environment

The sudden and sweeping tariff moves left companies facing a far more complex and less predictable trade landscape. Rapid changes to duty schedules, shifting compliance obligations and new landed-cost structures reshaped sourcing and distribution choices across industries.

Why companies accelerated GTM adoption

As volatility continued into 2026, U.S. manufacturers, distributors and other firms sought help from global trade management (GTM) platforms. These systems centralize trade data, automate compliance workflows and give visibility into classifications, tariff rates and regulatory rules.

Oscar Sanchez Duran, senior principal research analyst with Gartner Supply Chain Research, says a mix of economic, geopolitical, technological, social and regulatory disruptions drove organizations to speed up their GTM rollouts. He notes that the events beginning in early 2025 renewed corporate focus on trade compliance and the need for technology-driven solutions.

How GTM systems operate and the problems they solve

GTM software consolidates trade information in one place and applies consistent logic to transactions as they flow through the supply chain. Typical capabilities include:

• Mapping products to tariff and HS codes
• Applying country-specific duty and tax rates
• Running compliance checks against current trade rules and sanctions
• Providing visibility into landed cost impacts across sourcing and routing options

By aligning classification, duty calculations and rule checks, GTM helps firms detect cost and regulatory impacts earlier and make proactive adjustments to sourcing, routing or pricing.

Cost optimization, special procedures and scenario planning

Beyond compliance, GTM platforms help companies model scenarios and optimize trade flows. They support special customs regimes such as foreign trade zones (FTZs) and can identify cost-saving opportunities tied to tariff mitigation and duty drawback strategies.

Gartner research highlights that GTM vendors are increasingly embedding analysis and near-real-time insights using trade content and data to help organizations optimize flows and reduce expenses while rethinking supply chain design.

Vendors, AI and a shifting product landscape

Software vendors have responded by adding automation, optimization and artificial intelligence capabilities to their GTM offerings. Startups and point-solution providers in particular are applying AI to tasks such as product classification and tariff calculation, bringing new automation and also more fragmentation to a market that had been relatively mature.

According to Gartner, these developments are producing a wave of AI-assisted solutions that range from narrow classification tools to broader platforms focused on end-to-end trade optimization.

Market demand and buyer intentions

GTM moved into the upper ranks of supply chain software investment in 2025. The 2025 Gartner Business Buyer Survey found that 23% of supply chain software buyers considered GTM their most important product investment for the year.

Of those surveyed, 74% planned to buy GTM in 2025—40% as a net-new purchase and 34% as a replacement for existing systems—underscoring strong buyer momentum driven by recent global events.

Practitioner perspectives on process and readiness

Brandon Hamilton, a systems project manager at St. Onge Co., says shifting tariffs and sanctions made shippers reexamine compliance processes and automation. He notes that inconsistent government policy and frequent changes are prompting companies to move from reactive patches to more deliberate trade process reviews.

Hamilton emphasizes that readiness matters as much as functionality. Organizations need a clear understanding of their operational landscape—product classification practices, data ownership and decision responsibilities—before layering GTM tools on top of existing processes. Without that clarity, firms risk automating inconsistent or fragmented practices.

GTM’s operational and financial reach

While GTM solutions are often associated with compliance and regulatory tasks, they also provide operational and financial capabilities. The platforms commonly integrate with B2B networks, trade content services and channels for filing customs documentation.

Gartner points out that GTM applications that focus on international operations are useful for transportation sourcing, planning and execution management, enabling shippers to manage shipments with cross-border considerations such as Incoterms, multiple stakeholders, multi-leg transportation and different currencies.

What to expect in 2026 and beyond

Industry observers expect GTM investment and adoption to continue accelerating through 2026. Sanchez Duran argues that the extreme tariff volatility and ongoing regulatory change have created favorable conditions for GTM vendors, and that these systems moved from niche compliance tools to broadly used operational systems during 2025.

He and other analysts expect the trend to persist as organizations modernize aging systems, retire end-of-life software and seek greater transparency, resilience and security in their trade operations—trends likely to keep GTM near the top of supply chain software priorities.