Overview of the partial resumption
After months of disruption to Red Sea shipping lanes, shipping activity has begun to return in a limited way. Carriers are cautiously reinstating some Suez Canal transits under naval protection, a development that could ease immediate logistical pressures but also raises new questions for freight capacity and contract strategy.
Origins of the disruption
The interruption began in late 2023 when Yemeni Houthi groups launched attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden amid the broader Israel–Palestine conflict. Those actions forced carriers and shippers to reassess routes, insurance and risk exposure across international trade lanes.
Scale of pre-attack traffic and early impacts
Before the attacks, industry estimates put the Suez Canal/Red Sea corridor at roughly 10%–15% of global maritime trade. The Houthi attacks prompted a range of consequences for ocean freight, including:
- higher freight rates
- longer transit times
- reduced cargo volumes
These changes dented supply chain reliability and disrupted port schedules worldwide.
How carriers reacted operationally
Many carriers suspended transits through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, rerouting ships south around the Cape of Good Hope. That diversion absorbed spare capacity and reshaped vessel schedules and equipment flows across East–West trades.
Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd move to reopen a service
On February 3, Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd—partners in the Gemini Cooperation alliance that jointly operate 29 mainliner and 29 shuttle services on East–West routes—announced a change to one shared service. Their ME11 loop, which links India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean, will once again transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal starting in mid‑February, with naval protection in place for ships on that route.
The carriers said the change would be implemented to minimize customer disruption while prioritizing the safety of crews, vessels and cargo, and that they would continue to monitor the security situation closely.
Security monitoring and contingency planning
Both carriers emphasized that continued routing through the Red Sea depends on stability in the region and the absence of further escalation. They stated contingency measures are in place and that individual sailings—or the ME11 structure as a whole—could be reverted to the Cape of Good Hope if the security environment worsens.
Industry reaction and market implications
Observers and analysts see the move as an early sign of a gradual return to normal transits, but they warn of material market effects once traffic fully normalizes. In a February 3 LinkedIn post, Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime suggested this step likely signals the start of a phased comeback for more carriers.
Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, cautioned that if Red Sea transits return to normal in 2026, a large amount of previously latent capacity would come back into circulation. That release could exacerbate overcapacity and drive freight rates sharply lower, and he advised shippers to seek better visibility before committing to long‑term contracts.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, highlighted carrier capacity as a central issue. He noted that the original rerouting around the Cape soaked up spare capacity and helped keep rates elevated. Now some large lines—including CMA and several Chinese carriers—have begun to resume Suez transits for Europe and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. East Coast. Hackett also pointed to the Houthis' announced ceasefire as a factor that could return substantial capacity to the market and push rates down further.
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