Overview of the 2026 ocean freight environment

Global logistics leaders enter 2026 confronting a widening set of trends and unknowns. Key issues include potential court rulings on recent U.S. tariff actions, growing applications of artificial intelligence, mixed macroeconomic indicators, and ongoing geopolitical instability. For shippers the imperative remains the same: anticipate disruption while preparing for sudden changes. Ocean freight is starting the year after an unusually volatile 2025.

How U.S. tariffs and front-loading shaped 2025 flows

Much of last year’s volatility stemmed from the White House’s tariff measures on major trading partners. The implementation, subsequent pauses and delays prompted many importers to accelerate shipments into the U.S. ahead of possible cost increases, generating large swings in volume through 2025.

Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, says tariffs were the dominant influence on ocean shipping last year. He notes that although many expected tariffs to immediately drive consumer inflation, higher import duties have so far had only a limited impact on U.S. consumer prices, while sentiment among consumers remains low.

Damas attributes the delayed price effect to importers pulling forward inventories before tariffs took effect. Those earlier shipments allowed retailers to sell at pre-tariff prices; with those inventories now largely spent, new purchases are beginning to reflect tariff costs and could push prices higher.

Freight-rate dynamics and regional demand differences

Damas emphasizes that freight rates are still mainly determined by the balance between demand and capacity. He points to declining U.S. consumer-goods imports as a demand driver—citing a 7% year-over-year drop in September volumes at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach after several stronger months. Globally, North America has become an outlier, with other regions growing between 5% and 15% while North America falls roughly 5% behind.

Damas expects U.S. container imports to decline for three consecutive quarters through the second quarter of 2026. That outlook underlines the downside pressure on freight rates unless demand recovers or capacity is removed.

Market behavior, rate volatility, and shipper tactics

Jon Monroe, president and founder of Jon Monroe Consulting, describes the market as weak and freight rates as unstable. He says general rate increase (GRI) announcements often dissipate within days. Published rates frequently differ substantially from transacted levels—he gives examples of West Coast rates being quoted around $2,050–$2,100 but trading near $1,700, and East Coast quotes near $2,800 that settle closer to $2,400–$2,500.

As carriers cut rates to chase volume, many shippers have learned to delay shipments when a GRI is announced because they expect it will not hold. That behavior amplifies short-term volatility.

Consumption patterns and rerouting of exports

Monroe points to a concentration of spending at the top end of the income distribution: roughly 80% to 90% of consumer spending is now driven by the top 20% of earners, typically households with incomes above $350,000. That leaves many consumers on the sidelines and dampens demand in categories such as electronics, toys and furniture.

Meanwhile China has not experienced the same degree of weakness, prompting factories to redirect exports away from the U.S. toward Southeast Asia, Mexico, Central and South America and other regions. Monroe says some U.S.-bound volume will be lost and some will be redistributed globally. He also warns that tariffs add administrative complexity, noting that entry summaries already list multiple layers—base duties, fentanyl-related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs—and that the legal outcome remains uncertain.

Rising vessel capacity and the newbuild surge

New vessel capacity is compounding the problem of muted demand. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, says the 2026–2028 period will be especially challenging as a large wave of newbuilds enters service. Approximately 65% to 70% of those ships are ultra-large container vessels of around 25,000 TEU, intensifying pressure on carriers' profitability.

The financial effects are already visible: Maersk has reported weak recent quarters and a soft outlook, while carriers such as OOCL show higher volumes but falling revenues—an indicator of declining freight rates. Drewry’s Damas adds that if normal Red Sea transits resume, a substantial amount of latent capacity would re-enter the market and likely push rates lower as insurance premiums normalize.

Alliances, terminal control and operational models

Carriers now operate within several organized groupings. The market features three major alliances—Gemini Alliance, Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance—while MSC operates at a scale that makes it effectively similar to a single-carrier alliance. Although the first quarter of last year saw cancelled sailings and delays, performance has since improved.

• Gemini Alliance
• Premier Alliance
• Ocean Alliance
• MSC (operating at scale)

Drewry’s Damas says shippers still have choice and capacity. Gemini is testing a hub-and-spoke model that keeps ships departing on schedule rather than waiting for late cargo, and that approach has delivered better on-time performance. Monroe calls the Maersk–Hapag-Lloyd network likely the most reliable because it controls 14 key terminals and already posts schedule reliability above 90%. He adds that other alliances face more terminal-control risk. Monroe also notes MSC’s growing activity in feeder services and vessel orders for those trades.

Contracting choices, MQCs and market volatility

Monroe warns that annual comparisons will be tougher in 2026 because 2025 volumes were pulled forward. While there will be seasonal reorder activity, he expects consumer demand to be softer overall. That will put pressure on carriers to lift spot rates so that contracted rates can sit beneath them; in response, beneficial cargo owners may reduce minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) and lean more on spot markets, which will sustain high volatility.

Longer-term trade patterns and the China plus 10 dynamic

Looking beyond immediate cycles, global trade is shifting from a narrow China–U.S. focus to a broader "China plus 10" framework that includes Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, parts of Eastern Europe and countries in Central and South America. Monroe says China is not being abandoned but is expanding its export footprint. Carriers are adapting their networks to that reality, but the industry-wide oversupply means excess capacity will not be absorbed quickly.

Record trade volumes overshadowed by tariff headlines

Global trade reached more than $2.2 trillion last year, growing roughly 7% over 12 months, but media attention fixated on a different story. In January a new U.S. presidential administration began imposing tariffs on trading partners, and that activity extended through much of 2025.

Tariff rates climbed steeply in many cases, reaching double- and even triple-digit levels for particular country-product combinations. Large producers such as China drew much of the attention, but smaller nations were also targeted and affected.

From predictable duties to a volatile trade environment

The sudden and sweeping tariff moves left companies facing a far more complex and less predictable trade landscape. Rapid changes to duty schedules, shifting compliance obligations and new landed-cost structures reshaped sourcing and distribution choices across industries.

Why companies accelerated GTM adoption

As volatility continued into 2026, U.S. manufacturers, distributors and other firms sought help from global trade management (GTM) platforms. These systems centralize trade data, automate compliance workflows and give visibility into classifications, tariff rates and regulatory rules.

Oscar Sanchez Duran, senior principal research analyst with Gartner Supply Chain Research, says a mix of economic, geopolitical, technological, social and regulatory disruptions drove organizations to speed up their GTM rollouts. He notes that the events beginning in early 2025 renewed corporate focus on trade compliance and the need for technology-driven solutions.

How GTM systems operate and the problems they solve

GTM software consolidates trade information in one place and applies consistent logic to transactions as they flow through the supply chain. Typical capabilities include:

• Mapping products to tariff and HS codes
• Applying country-specific duty and tax rates
• Running compliance checks against current trade rules and sanctions
• Providing visibility into landed cost impacts across sourcing and routing options

By aligning classification, duty calculations and rule checks, GTM helps firms detect cost and regulatory impacts earlier and make proactive adjustments to sourcing, routing or pricing.

Cost optimization, special procedures and scenario planning

Beyond compliance, GTM platforms help companies model scenarios and optimize trade flows. They support special customs regimes such as foreign trade zones (FTZs) and can identify cost-saving opportunities tied to tariff mitigation and duty drawback strategies.

Gartner research highlights that GTM vendors are increasingly embedding analysis and near-real-time insights using trade content and data to help organizations optimize flows and reduce expenses while rethinking supply chain design.

Vendors, AI and a shifting product landscape

Software vendors have responded by adding automation, optimization and artificial intelligence capabilities to their GTM offerings. Startups and point-solution providers in particular are applying AI to tasks such as product classification and tariff calculation, bringing new automation and also more fragmentation to a market that had been relatively mature.

According to Gartner, these developments are producing a wave of AI-assisted solutions that range from narrow classification tools to broader platforms focused on end-to-end trade optimization.

Market demand and buyer intentions

GTM moved into the upper ranks of supply chain software investment in 2025. The 2025 Gartner Business Buyer Survey found that 23% of supply chain software buyers considered GTM their most important product investment for the year.

Of those surveyed, 74% planned to buy GTM in 2025—40% as a net-new purchase and 34% as a replacement for existing systems—underscoring strong buyer momentum driven by recent global events.

Practitioner perspectives on process and readiness

Brandon Hamilton, a systems project manager at St. Onge Co., says shifting tariffs and sanctions made shippers reexamine compliance processes and automation. He notes that inconsistent government policy and frequent changes are prompting companies to move from reactive patches to more deliberate trade process reviews.

Hamilton emphasizes that readiness matters as much as functionality. Organizations need a clear understanding of their operational landscape—product classification practices, data ownership and decision responsibilities—before layering GTM tools on top of existing processes. Without that clarity, firms risk automating inconsistent or fragmented practices.

GTM’s operational and financial reach

While GTM solutions are often associated with compliance and regulatory tasks, they also provide operational and financial capabilities. The platforms commonly integrate with B2B networks, trade content services and channels for filing customs documentation.

Gartner points out that GTM applications that focus on international operations are useful for transportation sourcing, planning and execution management, enabling shippers to manage shipments with cross-border considerations such as Incoterms, multiple stakeholders, multi-leg transportation and different currencies.

What to expect in 2026 and beyond

Industry observers expect GTM investment and adoption to continue accelerating through 2026. Sanchez Duran argues that the extreme tariff volatility and ongoing regulatory change have created favorable conditions for GTM vendors, and that these systems moved from niche compliance tools to broadly used operational systems during 2025.

He and other analysts expect the trend to persist as organizations modernize aging systems, retire end-of-life software and seek greater transparency, resilience and security in their trade operations—trends likely to keep GTM near the top of supply chain software priorities.

NRF and Hackett issue outlook for 2026 imports

The National Retail Federation and maritime consultant Hackett Associates released a new Global Port Tracker report projecting that U.S.-bound retail container imports will fall on an annual basis during the first half of 2026. The report, published earlier today, highlights expected declines in container volumes at major U.S. gateway ports.

Ports included in the Port Tracker survey

The report bases its numbers on a set of major U.S. ports. Those ports are listed below

• Los Angeles/Long Beach
• Oakland
• Tacoma
• Seattle
• Houston
• New York/New Jersey
• Hampton Roads
• Charleston
• Savannah
• Miami
• Jacksonville
• Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

What the container figures represent

The report’s authors note that the data count containers entering the United States and do not measure the monetary value of the goods inside them. Because the figures reflect unit volumes rather than value, they serve as an approximate gauge of retailers’ expectations and inventory activity rather than a direct measure of retail sales or employment.

Legal and policy uncertainty around tariffs

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said that the ongoing legal and congressional debates over tariffs are visibly affecting import volumes. He stressed the need for stable, predictable trade rules to give businesses and consumers certainty, arguing that tariffs effectively function as a tax on U.S. companies that is passed on to shoppers through higher prices.

The report also highlights a pending Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the White House’s use of IEEPA authority to impose tariffs, saying a decision could arrive at any time. It warns that, if the Court rules against the administration, the White House might attempt alternative measures to advance tariffs, creating further uncertainty.

December data and Port Tracker projections for 2026

For December, the most recent month with available data, the surveyed ports (with data missing from Houston and Charleston) handled 1.99 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). That total was down 1.7% from November but up 6.6% versus December a year earlier.

Port Tracker’s forward-looking tallies indicate that if projections hold, the first half of 2026 would total roughly 12.27 million TEU, a 2% drop year over year, and total imports for all of 2026 would be down about 2.3% compared with 2025. The report explains that projected year-over-year increases in May and June primarily reflect an unusually large decline in those months in 2025, when imports fell after the White House announced its so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Hackett’s analysis of trade shifts and supply chain stress

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, wrote that the use of tariffs as a coercive tool is reshaping international trade relationships and placing new strains on established supply chains. He cited examples such as Canada growing trade and investment ties with the European Union and China, and the EU’s move to conclude a trade agreement with India, as indicators of that shift.

Hackett added that efforts to build supply chain resilience grew after the pandemic, but uncertainty about where to create redundant capacity can raise costs. He said shippers may see lower freight rates in coming years, noting that carriers that recently reported strong profits are now facing negative returns, as disclosed by companies including Maersk and ONE.

Hackett warned that the outlook for carrier profits could weaken further as voyages through the Suez Canal resume and a large orderbook of new vessels is delivered, which together will release additional capacity. He said lower rates would help shippers but also underscore a market dealing with excess capacity amid limited economic growth.

Implications for retailers and consumers

The report’s findings and the commentary from industry officials underscore the interplay between trade policy, shipping market dynamics and retail supply chains. The combination of tariff uncertainty, potential legal changes, and shifting global trade patterns could complicate business planning and have downstream effects on inventory, pricing and consumer affordability.