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Port Tracker: U.S. Retail Container Imports Seen Falling Through Spring 2026

Port Tracker: U.S. Retail Container Imports Seen Falling Through Spring 2026

New Global Port Tracker report released

The National Retail Federation and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates published the latest edition of the Global Port Tracker, which projects that U.S.-bound retail container imports may rise briefly for the first time in six months but are not expected to sustain that increase until later in the spring.

The report highlights how seasonal patterns and policy decisions are shaping import flows into major U.S. gateways.

List of ports included in the survey

The Port Tracker survey covers a broad set of U.S. container gateways in both the West and East coasts as well as Gulf and Southeast ports.

  • Los Angeles/Long Beach
  • Oakland
  • Tacoma
  • Seattle
  • Houston
  • New York/New Jersey
  • Hampton Roads
  • Charleston
  • Savannah
  • Miami
  • Jacksonville
  • Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

What the container counts represent

The report’s figures measure the number of cargo containers arriving in the U.S., reported in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). Authors note these counts do not directly match retail sales or employment because they show container volumes, not the dollar value of the goods inside.

Nevertheless, container volumes offer a useful, if imperfect, gauge of retailers’ inventory plans and expectations.

For November, the most recent month available in the report, imports at the ports surveyed totaled 2.02 million TEU. That level represented a 2.3% decline from the prior month and a 6.5% decline versus the same month a year earlier.

Near-term outlook and Lunar New Year impact

Port Tracker expects a short uptick in imports this month as retailers and shippers act ahead of factory shutdowns for Lunar New Year in Asia, but otherwise forecasts the typical post-holiday lull in shipments. Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said retailers finished a busy holiday season and are now evaluating inventory and supply-chain plans for 2026.

Gold added that retailers are seeking greater stability and certainty on issues such as tariffs and trade policy in 2026 so they can operate supply chains more effectively and ensure consumers can find products at affordable prices.

Projected volumes for 2025

Port Tracker’s projections show the first half of 2025 handled 12.53 million TEU, which was up 3.7% year-over-year. For the full calendar year 2025, the report expects total imports to decline slightly, down about 0.4% from 2024, coming in at roughly 25.4 million TEU.

Tariff uncertainty and implications for 2026

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, wrote that persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy has disrupted import patterns. In 2025, that uncertainty created volatility as shippers rushed to buy ahead of tariff changes during "tariff windows" and paused purchases while tariffs were in effect, producing a roller-coaster effect on container flows.

Hackett observed that growing emphasis on protecting domestic industries and correcting perceived trade imbalances is raising questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation, which is expected to continue influencing U.S.-bound import volumes in 2026.

Retailers' priorities heading into 2026

As 2026 approaches, retailers are focused on maintaining steady supply chains and managing inventory to meet consumer demand. The industry is looking for clearer trade and tariff policies that would reduce uncertainty and support smoother logistics operations.

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