September LMI registers continued growth but at a slower clip

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) reported that the logistics sector expanded in September, but the pace of growth weakened. The overall LMI reading for September was 57.4, which remains above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion but trailed August’s 59.3 by 1.9% and marked the lowest reading since March and the second-lowest so far this year.

The report noted this is the seventh consecutive month the LMI has been below its all-time overall average of 61.5.

About the LMI project and its authors

The monthly LMI is produced through a collaboration among researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, with support from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).

The index is authored by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.

How the index is constructed and the eight components measured

The LMI reading is calculated from eight distinct components that track activity across inventory, warehousing and transportation. A reading above 50 indicates growth is occurring.

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

Transportation submetrics showed notable weakening

Transportation-related measures drove much of the slowdown in September. Key transportation figures included:

• Transportation Utilization fell 4.7%, to 50.0 — the lowest September reading on record, well below the eight-year September average of 65.1
• Transportation Prices decreased 1.9%, to 54.2
• Transportation Capacity declined 2.2%, to 55.1

The authors emphasized that although Transportation Prices declined, they remain in expansion territory, representing the slowest rate of growth since April 2024. The report also noted that September pricing is typically strong because of holiday merchandise shipments, but that strength did not materialize in September 2025.

Inventory and warehousing metrics paint a mixed picture

Inventory measures showed slower expansion in September as shipments moderated following a brisk summer. Specific inventory and warehousing readings were:

• Inventory Level Expansion at 55.2, down 3.1%
• Inventory Costs down 3.7%, to 75.5
• Warehousing Prices dipped 6.3%, to 66.0 — the largest drop of any LMI sub-index, yet still a robust rate of expansion and the second-lowest warehousing price reading of 2025 while ahead of the 65.2 average in 2024
• Warehousing Capacity rose 1.1%, to 51.6
• Warehousing Utilization rose 3.2%, to 65.3

Insights from Dr. Zac Rogers at the CSCMP EDGE conference

Speaking at the CSCMP EDGE annual conference in National Harbor, Maryland, Dr. Zac Rogers said the September LMI figure was the second-lowest this year, behind March. He attributed March's low reading to a pull-forward of inventories earlier in the year.

Rogers described unusual inventory timing last year, noting that goods began arriving in the second half of December rather than leaving at year-end. He linked that shift to tariff timing and said the unusual flow slowed activity by the end of March. He observed a similar slowdown in September 2025, though with different characteristics.

Interpreting the slowdown without contraction

Rogers pointed out that while several price and cost metrics declined in September, none contracted; they remained on the expanding side of the index. He used the 6.3% drop in Warehousing Prices as an example of a sizable sequential decline that still indicates growth.

He summarized the pattern by saying inventories moved from very rapid inflows over the summer to a slower arrival rate in September, which reduced associated costs. Inventory costs fell about three and a half points, warehousing prices dropped 6.3%, and transportation prices eased as well.

Rogers added perspective on growth intensity: readings above 60 reflect a robust rate of growth, and values over 70 indicate a significant rate. His conclusion was that the sector is decelerating — "we were going really fast and it was followed by a sharp decline" — but remains in expansionary territory.