October LMI shows continued expansion

The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) registered a reading of 57.4 in October, indicating that logistics-sector growth persisted. That mark matched September’s reading and represents the eighth consecutive month the index has remained below its long-term overall average of 61.4. A reading above 50 is interpreted as growth.

Who produces the monthly LMI

The monthly LMI is produced through a collaborative research effort involving scholars from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University. The project also receives support from the Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). The most recent edition of the LMI is authored by Zac Rogers, Ph.D., Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt, Ph.D., Ron Lembke, Ph.D., and Dale Rogers, Ph.D.

Components included in the index

The LMI reading is calculated from eight distinct logistics components. The report identifies these components as

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

October sub-index movements and specific figures

The authors explain the overall stability in the index reflects offsetting forces: declines in inventory and warehousing metrics were balanced by gains in transportation measures. In October, Inventory Levels shifted by -5.6 and moved into contraction at a reading of 49.5. Early in the month Inventory Levels contracted at a robust rate of 39.1, which the report interprets as evidence that previously large stocks of goods were being drawn down.

Historical comparison and the 2018 pattern

The report compares current dynamics to trends seen in the fall of 2018, when upstream B2B freight slowed in response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports while B2C movements stayed firm thanks to strong U.S. consumer spending. That downstream strength supported freight-market growth through the end of 2018, although a slowdown followed in early 2019 after holiday spending tapered off. The authors note it will be interesting to observe whether similar dynamics play out in 2026.

Outlook for transportation and holiday season effects

Based on October readings, the report suggests transportation markets—particularly downstream segments—are likely to remain robust at least through 2025. Taken together, the data imply inventories are falling as holiday shopping begins, which eases prior warehousing tightness and increases the utilization of transportation as goods move to consumers. In short, supply chains appear to be shifting from a relatively static, inventory-weighted state to a more active, seasonally normal flow.

Inventory timing since the pandemic and signs of normalization

The authors contrast this year with other post-pandemic seasons, when inventories tended to peak in mid-October and then decline progressively through holiday consumer spending. This year, inventories were pulled forward earlier to avoid tariffs and peaked sooner than usual. The October readings indicate a degree of reversion toward normal timing, with inventory being moved toward retail consumers and significant drawdown of large stockpiles.