September LMI signals slower expansion

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) indicated continued expansion in September but at a reduced pace, with a reading of 57.4. That score is down 1.9% from August's 59.3 and represents the index's lowest level since March and the second-lowest reading so far this year. September is the seventh consecutive month the LMI has registered below the LMI's all-time overall average of 61.5.

What the LMI measures and who compiles it

The monthly LMI aggregates eight distinct logistics components to produce its overall reading. The project involves researchers from multiple universities and receives support from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).

The eight components tracked in the index are:

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

The LMI is a joint effort among researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University. The index is written by Zac Rogers, Ph.D., Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt, Ph.D., Ron Lembke, Ph.D., and Dale Rogers, Ph.D., and receives support from CSCMP.

Transportation metrics show notable weakness

Transportation-related sub-indices contributed heavily to the slowdown. Transportation Utilization dropped 4.7% to a reading of 50.0, marking its lowest September figure on record and well below the eight-year September average of 65.1. Transportation Prices decreased 1.9% to 54.2, while Transportation Capacity slipped 2.2% to 55.1.

September is typically a busy month in the freight market because of holiday-related shipments, but pricing and utilization were softer than usual this year.

Inventory and warehousing results

Inventory expansion and cost measures moved differently in September. Inventory Level Expansion registered 55.2, down 3.1% sequentially. Inventory Costs stayed high but eased 3.7% to 75.5.

Within warehousing, Warehousing Prices fell 6.3% to 66.0, the largest single drop among all LMI sub-indices and the second-lowest warehousing price reading of 2025. At the same time, Warehousing Capacity rose 1.1% to 51.6 and Warehousing Utilization climbed 3.2% to 65.3, indicating continued demand for space despite price softening.

Explaining the unusual inventory timing

Dr. Zac Rogers highlighted abnormal inventory timing as a central factor behind the recent pattern. Speaking at the CSCMP EDGE annual conference in National Harbor, Maryland, he said inventories had been shifted forward earlier in the year, with a large volume arriving at the end of December—contrary to normal seasonality.

That front-loaded arrival of goods affected inventory activity through early 2025 and helped produce the slower growth seen in recent months.

Interpretation and outlook for the sector

Despite the sequential declines across several cost and price measures, none of those metrics moved into contraction; readings remain above the 50 threshold that denotes growth. The LMI's authors note that readings above 60 indicate strong growth and readings above 70 signal significant acceleration.

As Dr. Rogers summarized, "we're slowing down in a way where it's like we were going really fast, followed by a sharp decline."

The overall picture is of a logistics sector still expanding but decelerating from earlier, faster rates of growth as seasonal and timing effects reduce costs and utilization pressures.