September LMI shows slower expansion across logistics

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) recorded continued expansion in September but at a slower pace, with an overall reading of 57.4. That score is down from August's 59.3 by 1.9 points, marks the lowest monthly reading since March and is the second-lowest reading of 2025. It is also the seventh straight month the index has remained below the all-time overall average of 61.5.

Who produces the LMI and what it measures

The monthly LMI is produced by researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University and Rutgers University, with support from the Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). The current report is authored by Zac Rogers, Ph.D.; Steven Carnovale, Ph.D.; Shen Yeniyurt, Ph.D.; Ron Lembke, Ph.D.; and Dale Rogers, Ph.D.

The LMI reading is compiled from eight core components that track activity across the logistics sector, including:

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

Transportation metrics pull back in September

Transportation-related submetrics showed notable slowing in September. Transportation Utilization fell 4.7% to 50.0, the lowest September reading on record and well under the eight-year September average of 65.1. Transportation Prices declined 1.9% to 54.2, and Transportation Capacity decreased 2.2% to 55.1.

The authors noted that while transportation prices eased, they remained in expansion territory, reflecting the slowest rate of growth since April 2024. The report also observed that typical September strength from holiday-season shipments did not materialize in September 2025.

Inventory and warehousing dynamics

Inventory expansion slowed as well. Inventory Level Expansion registered 55.2, down 3.1%, while Inventory Costs, though elevated, fell 3.7% to 75.5.

Warehousing prices experienced the largest single decline among sub-indices, dipping 6.3% to 66.0. Despite that drop, warehousing prices remain in robust expansion and represent the second-lowest reading of 2025, still above the 2024 average of 65.2. Warehousing Capacity rose 1.1% to 51.6, and Warehousing Utilization increased 3.2% to 65.3.

Conference remarks from Dr. Zac Rogers

Speaking at the CSCMP EDGE annual conference in National Harbor, Maryland, Dr. Zac Rogers characterized September as the second-lowest reading of the year, trailing only March. He linked March's low score to a pull-forward of inventories earlier in the year and recounted how inventories unexpectedly arrived late in December—an unusual pattern driven in part by tariff timing into January and February, which then slowed by the end of March.

“This is the second-lowest reading this year, only behind March, and the reason March was low is because of the big pull-forward of inventories that happened at the beginning of the year,”

“We saw a really funny thing happen last year, which is inventories really started coming in the second half of December. Inventory is not supposed to show up at the end of December. It's supposed to leave at the end of December. But it started showing up because tariffs came through January, February and then the end of March, it started to slow down. We saw a similar slowdown, I think in September, although there are some different characteristics to it.”

Interpretation and implications for the logistics market

The report emphasizes that a sequential decline in the LMI does not necessarily indicate contraction: readings above 50 still signal growth. In September, despite several sub-indices falling, none moved into contraction.

The report's scale highlights what the figures mean: readings above 60 indicate a robust rate of growth, while readings above 70 denote a significant rate of growth. The authors suggested the sector is moderating from a period of rapid expansion toward slower, but still positive, growth — with inventory inflows easing and associated costs and prices dropping as a result.

Key takeaways for stakeholders

Stakeholders should note the mixed signals: transportation and warehousing costs have eased, utilization and capacity measures remain in expansion, and inventory costs are still elevated but retreating. These dynamics point to a logistics market that is cooling from earlier momentum rather than contracting outright.

Companies planning for the peak shipping season and managing inventory should weigh slower growth and softer pricing against continued above‑50 expansion across most LMI components.