December manufacturing contraction confirmed by ISM
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing activity contracted in December, marking the 10th straight month of decline. The report identified the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as the benchmark measure for this contraction.
PMI reading and pace of change
ISM recorded the December PMI at 47.9, a 0.3 point decline from November. Readings above 50 indicate growth, so this result signals contraction. ISM also noted that the overall economy continued to expand, but at a slower pace for the 68th consecutive month.
Comparison with recent averages and extremes
The December PMI was 1.0 point below the 12-month average of 48.9. Over that 12-month span, January 2025 registered the high reading of 50.9 while December recorded the low reading of 47.0.
Sectors that expanded in December
Only two manufacturing sectors reported growth in December according to ISM:
- Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components
- Computer & Electronic Products
Sectors that contracted in December
A broad set of industries reported contraction in December. ISM listed the following sectors as contracting:
- Apparel, Leather & Allied Products
- Wood Products
- Textile Mills
- Paper Products
- Chemical Products
- Printing & Related Support Activities
- Nonmetallic Mineral Products
- Petroleum & Coal Products
- Primary Metals
- Miscellaneous Manufacturing
- Plastics & Rubber Products
- Fabricated Metal Products
- Machinery
- Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products
- Transportation Equipment
Main themes cited by ISM panelists
ISM said tariffs and the broader economy were the dominant themes in panelists’ comments for December. A Chemical Products panelist summarized the year as mixed and pointed to tariffs as a significant drag on real consumer spending.
“Winding up the year with mixed results. It has not been a great year. We have had some success holding the line on costs; however, real consumer spending is down and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending.”
Transportation equipment industry outlook from a panelist
A Transportation Equipment panelist described weakening market conditions and noted that many customers are placing orders for 2026 at levels 20 percent to 30 percent below their historical buying patterns.
“Some large fleets are still completely on hold for 2026, with zero capital expenditures money available to fleet budgets. Truck rental utilization, which is a good benchmark for the health of the economy, is still below historically stable levels. The general mood of the industry is that the first half of 2026 will be another bust, and we’re now hoping things pick up in the second half, even as the North American truck fleet continues to age.”
Comments from ISM committee chair Susan Spence
In an interview, Susan Spence, Chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said December closed out a year marked by manufacturing uncertainty and that December produced the lowest PMI reading of 2025.
Spence reviewed the top six manufacturing sectors—Chemical Products, Computer & Electronic Products, Machinery, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Petroleum, and Transportation Equipment—and highlighted disparity in performance. She noted that Petroleum expanded in nine months of 2025 while representing just 5% of manufacturing GDP. By contrast, Chemical Products, which make up about 20% of manufacturing GDP, expanded in only three months. Computer & Electronic Products grew in six months and have trended upward largely due to buildout of AI-focused data centers.
Spence also emphasized weakening breadth and depth of contraction: 85% of the manufacturing sector was in contraction in December, up from 58% in November. The share of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction—defined by ISM as 45% or lower—rose to 43% from November’s 39%.
“Overall, the sentiment is not great, nor is the employment picture. The December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading at 52.9 was down from 74.0 in December 2024. These things together are not part of a positive trend [for manufacturing].”
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