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Headline numbers from FTR and ACT
Preliminary data for December showed a marked rise in Class 8 truck net orders from two independent research firms. FTR reported preliminary December orders at 42,200 units, a 108% increase over October and a 21% gain year-over-year, reaching the highest level since October 2022 and comfortably exceeding the 10-year December average of 29,351. ACT Research put December preliminary net orders at 42,700 units, a 16% annual increase and well above its preliminary November tally of 19,700 units.
FTR’s breakdown of market segments and season trends
FTR said both on-highway and vocational markets showed similar monthly percentage gains, with the on-highway segment accounting for most of the year-over-year improvement. Despite December’s strength, FTR noted broader season trends were weaker: cumulative 2026-season net orders from September through December fell 22% year-over-year. FTR also reported that Class 8 orders have totaled 22,178 units over the past 12 months.
Impact of tariffs and regulatory clarity
FTR attributed part of the December surge to improved policy visibility. The firm said clarity around tariffs and emissions regulations in October and November helped spur orders. It reported that the Section 232 tariffs on Class 3–8 trucks, implemented on November 1, were less burdensome than many had feared, which, together with easing regulatory uncertainty, supported buying activity.
Expected EPA action and its market timing
FTR highlighted an anticipated EPA action as another market influence. The firm said the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose revisions to the 2027 NOx rule in March or April that would keep the 2027 implementation date and the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard while removing costly extended warranty requirements and modifying other compliance provisions. FTR also noted that word of the EPA’s plan did not circulate until about 10 days before Thanksgiving, which likely contributed to orders accumulating in December instead of November.
FTR analyst perspective on durability of the rebound
FTR cautioned that the December uptick may not signal a sustained recovery. Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR, emphasized persistent headwinds in the freight market and fleet economics.
"Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs," Moyer said. "As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection. A more durable recovery in equipment demand will require a sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions."
ACT Research explanation and caution
ACT linked December’s jump to several near-term drivers but warned the result may overstate improvement. The firm reported its own preliminary December figure of 42,700 units, a 16% annual rise, and contrasted that with its preliminary November number of 19,700 units, which was down 4.7% year-over-year despite November typically being the third-strongest month for orders.
"After spending most of 2025 in the doldrums, amid stagnant freight rates and beset by policy and regulatory uncertainty, new vehicle demand jolted awake in December," said Carter Vieth, an ACT Research analyst. "A firmer economic foundation, increasingly aged fleets, and the certainty of higher costs and new technologies in 2027 were the impetus, in our opinion, for the sudden change of heart. As trucking fundamentals remain thin, if improving, we view December’s Class 8 result as overstating the improvement."
Industry feedback from the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
The Institute for Supply Management’s December "Manufacturing Report on Business" included commentary from a Transportation Equipment analyst that tempered enthusiasm about the month’s order reports. The analyst said market conditions have not broadly improved and cited multiple signs of continued weakness.
- Many customers placing orders for 2026 are doing so at levels 20 percent to 30 percent below historical buying patterns
- Some large fleets remain completely on hold for 2026, with no capital expenditures budgeted
- Truck rental utilization, a common economic health benchmark, remains below historically stable levels
- The prevailing industry expectation is that the first half of 2026 will be weak, with hopes for improvement in the second half as the North American truck fleet continues to age
What to watch next for fleet orders and market recovery
Looking ahead, the market will be watching for the EPA’s formal proposal in March or April, ongoing freight demand trends, and whether fleet profitability and capital allocation shift enough to produce a sustained renaissance in equipment purchases. At present, both FTR and ACT view December’s spike as driven largely by policy clarity and deferred buying rather than by a broad-based upturn in demand.
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