Current state of U.S.-China trade
Trade flows between the United States and China remain significantly below levels seen before the introduction of new tariffs. While some recent indicators point to stabilization in parts of the relationship, overall bilateral trade has not returned to pre-tariff volumes.
project44 analysis findings
Analysis published by project44 highlights a subtle shift late in the period under review. Their data show that U.S. exports to China recorded an improvement in December, interrupting a long stretch of year-over-year declines.
Details of the December export uptick
The December rise in exports was the first year-over-year increase after months of steady decreases. The recovery is described as modest, but notable because it follows a period in which exports were broadly falling.
How 2025 tariffs and policy shifts affected trade
Much of 2025 was characterized by sharp drops in trade tied to newly implemented tariffs and shifting trade policy. Those measures played a central role in reducing cross-border shipments and altering the patterns of trade between the two countries.
Persistent weakness in imports from China
Imports from China continue to lag, remaining well below the levels seen in the prior year. Volumes of goods entering the United States from China have not mirrored the modest improvement seen on the export side.
How tariffs reshaped sourcing and manufacturing decisions
The new tariff environment has pushed many companies to rethink sourcing strategies and manufacturing footprints. Tariffs have reshaped sourcing decisions and prompted numerous firms to pull back from manufacturing in China, contributing to the sustained weakness in imports.
Summary of key facts
The following points summarize the central facts reported:
- U.S.-China trade remains well below pre-tariff levels
- project44 data show U.S. exports to China improved in December
- That December reading was the first year-over-year export increase after months of declines
- The export rebound was modest
- Much of 2025 saw sharp trade drops tied to new tariffs and shifting policy
- Imports from China remain far below last year’s volumes
- Tariffs have altered sourcing and led many companies to reduce manufacturing in China
- Exports show early signs of recovery, but imports have not yet followed
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