Summary of Port Tracker outlook

The latest Global Port Tracker report, prepared by the National Retail Federation (NRF) in partnership with maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, warns that U.S.-bound container imports are likely to decline steadily for the remainder of this year and continue into 2026 following a near-record summer peak.

Ports included in the survey

The report bases its data on a set of major U.S. gateway ports that together represent a large share of inbound container traffic.

• Los Angeles/Long Beach
• Oakland
• Tacoma
• Seattle
• Houston
• New York/New Jersey
• Hampton Roads
• Charleston
• Savannah
• Miami
• Jacksonville
• Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

How the report measures import activity

Global Port Tracker counts container volumes in TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), which measure the number of containers entering the country rather than the dollar value of the goods inside them. The report’s authors note that container volumes act as a rough gauge of retailers’ expectations but do not map directly to retail sales or employment.

Recent tariff actions and legal developments

The report highlights a series of tariff moves that have influenced import patterns. Reciprocal tariffs went into effect on August 1, and a federal appeals court later ruled that the White House’s use of the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) was unlawful, although those tariffs remain while the administration appeals the decision.

Planned increases in U.S. tariffs on China were delayed to November 10 amid ongoing talks. In late August the U.S. implemented an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, bringing the total U.S. tariff rate on India to 50%.

Retailers’ reaction and policy concerns

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said retailers have rushed to bring in inventory ahead of tariff increases, but the expanding scope and unpredictability of tariff policy have made long-term planning difficult. He warned those added costs are likely to be passed on to American consumers.

July import volumes and record context

For July, the most recent month with data available, U.S. imports reached 2.36 million TEU. That figure, which excludes New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami, represented a 20.1% increase from the prior month and a 1.8% rise year over year. July’s total was the second-highest monthly volume on record, behind May 2022 at 2.4 million TEU.

Projections and drivers of the expected decline

Port Tracker issued projections for August and the months that follow and attributed the anticipated declines in part to tariff-driven buying patterns. The report also cited an unusually early 2025 peak season and elevated late-2024 imports that reflected concerns about potential port strikes at that time.

Outlook for 2025 and shipping industry impacts

Looking ahead, Port Tracker reported that total volume for the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEU, a 3.5% increase versus the prior year. However, calendar-year 2025 is projected to fall 3.4% year over year to about 24.7 million TEU.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the White House’s use of tariffs has broadened from targeting unfair trade practices to serving a wider set of national policy aims, which has strained bilateral trade and economic relations. He added that container shipping lines are already revising financial forecasts for the rest of the year, with many anticipating losses by the fourth quarter because of weaker global trade and an oversupply of vessel capacity.