October import totals and annual change

Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence show U.S.-bound containerized freight totaled 2.71 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in October, a 3.4% decrease from the same month a year earlier.

Month-to-month trend and recent monthly figures

October marked another monthly fall following several earlier declines. The sequence of recent monthly import totals was:

• July: 3.01 million TEU (the first month above 3 million TEU)
• August: 2.90 million TEU
• September: 2.72 million TEU
• October: 2.71 million TEU

July's brief peak followed a June drop and occurred as some importers adjusted sourcing in response to reciprocal tariffs announced by the White House under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which took effect on August 7.

Year-to-date performance and fourth-quarter outlook

Through October, cumulative imports reached 27.55 million TEU, up 2.5% year over year. S&P Global Market Intelligence projects a weaker fourth quarter, estimating U.S.-bound containerized freight will fall 14.4% year over year after a 0.6% annual gain in the third quarter.

Regional forecasts and tariff effects

S&P expects the import downturn to persist through the third quarter of 2026, with the steepest declines coming from Asia. Specific regional projections include:

• Imports from mainland China are projected to drop about 23.2%.
• Imports from the European Union are forecast to rise roughly 0.4%, in part due to a trade arrangement with the U.S. that establishes a flat 15% tariff rate; however, those EU gains are expected to fade early next year when the prior year’s pre-tariff front-loading period is lapped.

Warehouse and manufacturing signals

S&P Global Market Intelligence highlighted several indicators pointing to elevated inventory levels. The WarehouseQuote National Pricing Index rose 0.5% year over year in October, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed stocks of finished goods at their highest reading since at least 2007. At the same time, purchases have not yet begun to decline.

Expert analysis on inventories and seasonality

Chris Rogers, Research Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the data suggest U.S. manufacturers and retailers may have overbuilt inventories, increasing the odds of a swift slowdown in trade and supply chain activity heading into 2026. He noted that peak-season shipments appeared to occur earlier this year than typical, with categories such as consumer electronics and leisure goods peaking in August and September rather than in October as seen in prior years.

Rogers described that timing shift as a "tariff hangover," and pointed to a generally flatter, less spiky peak season — a pattern amplified by tariffs being implemented later than expected.

Remaining tariff uncertainties and recent trade deals

Rogers emphasized that uncertainties remain around the final tariff structure for some goods, notably consumer electronics, and pointed to recently announced agreements with Switzerland and four Central American countries. He said more adjustments and deals are likely to follow.

Near-term outlook and corporate responses

S&P Global Market Intelligence expects the slowdown to accelerate through November and December and into the first quarter of 2026. Rogers highlighted two reasons the first quarter is likely to be a drag:

1. Large inventories accumulated during the peak season will need to be worked down, and with companies less promotional, weaker sales could keep customers on the sidelines.
2. The comparison base is difficult: the first quarter of 2025 was exceptionally strong, so year-over-year growth in early 2026 is likely to show a double-digit slowdown.

Despite the near-term weakness, Rogers said the longer-term outlook for trade policy is comparatively positive, with larger trade agreements progressing in Europe, Latin America and Asia and renewed corporate discussion about strategic investments and long-term planning. Nevertheless, he reiterated that the first quarter of 2026 will likely be challenging on a year-over-year basis.