Latest index release and headline findings
The fourth-quarter edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index was released today and shows a mix of gains and declines across shipment volumes and spending. The report highlights modest sequential improvements in some shipment measures while overall freight expenditures climbed in most regions.
How the index is constructed and its scope
The index, first published in the third quarter of 2017, tracks freight shipping volumes and freight-related spend on both national and regional bases. It uses actual transaction payment dates and focuses on the highest-volume domestic modes—truckload and less-than-truckload. Data are seasonally and calendar adjusted, and historical values extend back to 2010 with a base point of 100.
U.S. Bank Freight Payment processes more than $43 billion in annual freight payments for large corporations and government agencies, and the index values report each quarter’s volume relative to the prior quarter.
National shipment metrics and year-over-year context
The report shows the first-quarter shipment index at 76.1, a 1.5% increase from the fourth quarter. Despite that sequential rise, shipments remained below year-ago levels: the first-quarter index was down 4.9% year-over-year, while the fourth quarter had been down 2.9% on an annual basis.
When adjusted for the year, the index for all of 2025 declined 9.9% compared with the 2024 average. The report notes this annualized fall was still less than half of the 20.4% year-over-year decline recorded in 2024.
Regional shipment performance breakdown
Regional shipment movements varied across the country. The report listed the following sequential and annual changes:
- Western U.S.: down 1.3% sequentially, up 5.4% year-over-year
- Midwest: up 3.5% sequentially, down 3.3% year-over-year
- Northeast: up 4.2% sequentially, up 12.1% year-over-year
- Southwest: up 5.4% sequentially, down 25.4% year-over-year
- Southeast: down 2.4% sequentially, down 5.9% year-over-year
Spending trends and interpretation
The spend index value for the period reported at 191.9, rising 4.6% sequentially and 5.2% year-over-year—marking the first annual increase in three years and the third straight quarterly rise. The report interprets these moves as evidence that shippers are paying substantially more to move only slightly larger freight volumes.
"Despite uneven shipment volumes, fourth quarter spending rose nearly everywhere, driven mainly by higher freight rates," the report stated, adding that steady or lower diesel prices indicate fuel surcharges were not the primary driver of rising total costs.
Regional spending results
Spending increased in most regions, with the report listing the following changes:
- West: up 2.6% sequentially, up 9.4% year-over-year
- Southwest: up 12.6% sequentially, up 16.8% year-over-year
- Midwest: up 5.0% sequentially, up 0.1% year-over-year
- Northeast: up 5.5% sequentially, up 16.7% year-over-year
- Southeast: up 0.7% sequentially, down 1.3% year-over-year
Capacity constraints and industry commentary
Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics, emphasized that capacity dynamics defined the quarter.
"Shippers paid significantly more to move slightly more freight—clear evidence that available truck capacity continues to tighten," Holland said, noting fleet exits and carriers trimming rosters have prolonged industry contraction.
Lead author analysis and regulatory impacts
Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations and the report’s lead author, wrote that the national freight market in the last quarter of 2025 saw a modest rise in shipments while capacity continued to shrink and shipper spending reached its highest level since early 2024.
Costello cited several contributors to the capacity decline: prolonged market weakness that led carriers to downsize fleets and reduce independent contractors, an overall drop in the number of operating carriers, and tighter regulatory enforcement including tougher English Language Proficiency standards that removed thousands of drivers from service.
He also noted a Department of Transportation action temporarily paused issuance of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses for certain non-citizens and non-permanent residents until full compliance with new DOT rules; that policy could have affected nearly 194,000 CDL holders, although a court challenge has paused implementation. The report also referenced instances of foreign drivers operating without proper work authorization and said new enforcement measures are expected to curb those occurrences.
Overall, Costello observed that declining capacity pushed up shipping costs, and spot market rates rose both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, underscoring tighter conditions across the freight sector.
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