CSCMP EDGE session in National Harbor

A cross-disciplinary panel of supply chain professionals reviewed current market dynamics during a session at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE annual conference in National Harbor, Maryland. The discussion revisited findings from CSCMP’s 36th Annual State of Logistics Report and offered a year-to-date perspective on where the industry stands.

Key findings from the State of Logistics Report

The panel examined the report, presented by Penske Logistics, which found that U.S. business logistics costs reached $2.6 trillion this year, a 5.4% increase from the prior year. Those costs represent 8.7% of U.S. gross domestic product. In the previous year the report recorded $2.3 trillion in logistics costs, also equivalent to 8.7% of GDP.

Macroeconomic outlook and inflation trajectory

Paul Bingham, director of Transportation Consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the U.S. economy is operating below its potential and expects 2025 growth to be weaker than 2024, while not forecasting a recession. He highlighted resilient consumer spending and strong sentiment as factors that have kept the economy out of recession despite headwinds.

Bingham noted recent increases in unemployment and said the Federal Reserve has resumed, after a pause, interest rate cuts—moves he views as supportive for next year if sustained. He also pointed to fiscal stimulus embedded in the federal budget reconciliation bill enacted this summer, including tax incentives and new programs that provide additional support to the economy.

On inflation, Bingham described ongoing upward pressure tied in part to tariffs, with inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target. S&P Global Market Intelligence projects inflation will peak in early 2026—reaching around 3.4%—and then decline, assuming tariffs do not continue to rise. He added that if tariffs remain stable, much of the tariff-driven price adjustment will be one-time, and the headline inflation rate should fall by the end of 2026.

Growth and freight expectations

Bingham gave a U.S. growth forecast of about 2.3% for the coming year and described the baseline as weak demand without recession. He said global growth is expected to be slightly slower from 2024 to 2025 and then modestly stronger in 2026. At the modal level, he sees freight demand remaining subdued: trucking and rail are not experiencing a demand surge, while container shipping faces overcapacity that will further push down ocean rates.

He suggested that easing cost of capital and moderated transportation costs could enable the industry to move off the current plateau in the next year.

Nearshoring and trade shifts favoring Mexico

Javier Zarazua, CSCMP country manager for Mexico, outlined how nearshoring trends have shifted trade patterns between the U.S., Mexico and China. Through June on a year-to-date basis, U.S.-bound imports from Mexico rose 6% while imports from China fell 16%. In July, Mexico’s U.S.-bound imports climbed another 1% while China’s were down 19% for the month.

Zarazua traced part of this change back to tariffs first enacted in 2018 and said the trends translate into expanding opportunities in Mexico. He noted that trade between the U.S. and Mexico rose about 35% last year and that Laredo has become a dominant border gateway. The shift has spurred cross-border activity and manufacturing growth in Mexico, and Zarazua said there is a clear delineation in which industries are returning manufacturing to the United States and which are locating in Mexico.

Shippers, 3PLs and carrier market pressures

Andy Moses, senior vice president of Solutions & Sales Strategy at Penske Logistics, described a shakeout in commodity-oriented freight and said carriers are under significant pressure as their costs rise while rates remain largely flat. He called that combination a difficult environment for carriers.

At the same time, Moses praised the capability and commitment of third-party logistics providers, saying 3PLs continue to move large volumes of freight and to improve how they handle the accompanying data. He emphasized that roles across front-line operations and analytics are evolving, requiring excellence in both physical execution and digital capabilities.

AI acceleration and its implications for logistics

Michael Zimmerman, partner and Logistics Leader at Kearney, said artificial intelligence adoption in the supply chain is accelerating and will be a significant contributor to future performance. He argued that logistics teams gained recognition for guiding resources through pandemic-induced disruption, but after the worst of the crisis many companies returned to restructuring and tightened resources.

Zimmerman said organizations increasingly demand that processes be automated or justified against AI capabilities. He pointed to digital brokers using AI to cut waste, automate tasks and boost margins without necessarily adding headcount. He cited multiple practical applications where AI is already producing value:

• enhancing visibility across networks
• supporting procurement decisions
• improving rate, audit and payment processes

He noted that AI can produce strong first drafts—such as for an RFP or short-term problem forecasts—that free people from routine work and allow them to focus on higher-value activities. Zimmerman added that while larger organizations with greater spend may realize benefits fastest, smaller firms are unlikely to wait long to adopt these tools; the adoption race is long-term and competitive.

Practical AI use cases and governance

Moses said the influence of AI spans operations, finance, safety and engineering, creating opportunities throughout companies. He described a practical use case in which a photo of a trailer being loaded is converted into a data stream that helps manage available space. He identified track-and-trace as low-hanging fruit and noted active work in machine learning as well as in generative AI and natural language processing.

He also stressed that AI has become a boardroom topic, raising governance considerations that leadership teams must address as these technologies are woven into everyday logistics and supply-chain decision-making.