October snapshot from DAT

DAT Freight and Analytics released its latest Truckload Volume Index showing that October spot truckload volumes and rates were mixed across segments. The month did not show a clear, sustained uptrend for the spot market as it moved toward the end of the year.

How the DAT Truckload Volume Index is constructed

The DAT Truckload Volume Index tracks changes in the number of loads with a pickup date in each month. DAT normalizes the index each month to incorporate new data sources without distortion and uses a baseline of 100 to represent the number of loads moved in January 2015.

The index covers loads moved by truckload carriers in the dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed sectors.

Key takeaways from DAT data

DAT highlighted several observations about freight volumes and rates for October:

• Freight volumes in the third quarter and October mirror broader trends in the goods economy.
• Shippers have been drawing down inventories they built earlier in the year to reduce exposure to tariffs and weaker consumer demand.
• The traditional holiday peak shipping season appears to be largely absent this year.

Comments from DAT chief of analytics Ken Adamo

Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics, said the data reflect inventory drawdowns and subdued consumer demand and noted that the expected holiday shipping surge is effectively missing this year.

In a separate interview with LM, Adamo described October as showing the aftereffects of immigration and visa-related issues around driver CDLs that surfaced and then eased over the month. He said the robust second half of September carried some momentum into early October before activity trended downward, serving as a preview of November.

Rate and capacity dynamics observed in October

Adamo noted that, as of this week, spot rates are only marginally higher year-over-year or are slightly lower. He traced the late-September into October movement to capacity shifts tied to CDL enforcement expectations, followed by a U.S. District Court pause on non-domiciled CDL enforcement, which made the market feel as if the industry-wide Road Check had continued for a couple of weeks.

He emphasized that the market is operating in a weak demand environment. Small, short-lived upticks have been driven mainly by supply-side factors rather than sustained demand growth.

Short-term capacity and demand constraints

Adamo warned that capacity is difficult to ramp up quickly in the short term, and that while sudden demand spikes can push rates higher, the current situation is dominated by generally weak demand. He characterized recent bumps in activity as supply-driven rather than evidence of a durable market recovery.

Outlook for the balance of 2025

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, Adamo predicted a bumpy ride for the spot market. He said any seasonal rate bumps or short-term capacity-driven rate gains will squeeze broker margins and increase financial stress across the broker community.

Adamo believes the next meaningful opportunity for carriers and brokers to rebuild finances will be in spring, and he warned many firms may not have the balance-sheet strength to wait that long.

Risks for brokers and carriers and holiday expectations

Adamo cautioned that, absent a change in conditions, the industry could see a rise in both trucker and broker bankruptcies before volumes recover next spring. He noted that while November and December are typically stronger months and December is usually better sequentially, if the pattern follows last year those months may fail to impress.