October reading and headline finding

The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) registered a reading of 57.4 in October, marking growth for the second month in a row. A reading above 50 denotes expansion, and the October result matched September’s figure. Despite continuing growth, this marks the eighth consecutive month that the LMI has remained below its long-term overall average of 61.4.

Who produces the LMI and institutional partners

The monthly LMI is a collaborative research effort involving Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University. The project receives support from the Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). The LMI report is authored by Zac Rogers, Ph.D., Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt, Ph.D., Ron Lembke, Ph.D., and Dale Rogers, Ph.D.

How the index is constructed and its component areas

The LMI reading is derived from eight distinct components that together measure activity across logistics. Those components are:

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

October sub-index movements and internal dynamics

The report attributes the flat overall reading to offsetting forces within those components: declines in inventory and warehousing metrics were counterbalanced by gains in transportation metrics. Specific inventory measures showed meaningful declines in October.

• Inventory Levels shifted by -5.6, moving into contraction territory at 49.5.
• Early in the month, Inventory Levels contracted at a robust rate of 39.1, a sign that previously large stores of goods were being drawn down.

Comparison with past cycles and the 2018 pattern

The authors note similarities to dynamics seen in the fall of 2018, when upstream B2B freight slowed amid U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports while B2C movements stayed healthy thanks to strong consumer spending. That strong downstream demand kept freight markets growing through the end of 2018, before a slowdown arrived in early 2019 after holiday spending ended. The report suggests it will be instructive to watch whether comparable patterns emerge again in 2026.

Inventory timing this year and tariff-related effects

The report observes that this year’s inventory timing differed from other recent years. Instead of peaking in mid-October and then declining with holiday spending, inventories were pulled forward earlier—partly to avoid tariffs—and consequently peaked sooner than usual. October readings now show signs of inventory moving toward retail consumers, a sign of partial normalization in seasonal patterns.

Transportation strength and short-term outlook

Given October’s readings, the report concludes transportation markets—especially Downstream, serving consumer demand—are likely to remain strong at least through 2025. In aggregate, the data suggest inventories are falling as holiday sales begin, which eases prior tightness in warehousing and increases transportation utilization as goods move to market. In short, supply chains appear to be shifting from a static, inventory-heavy posture to a more dynamic, seasonally consistent flow.