September LMI reading and overall trend

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) registered a reading of 57.4 in September, signaling continued growth but at a slower pace than in August, when the index was 59.3. This result is the lowest monthly reading since March and the second-lowest of 2025, and it marks the seventh month in a row the LMI has fallen below its long-term overall average of 61.5. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Who produces the LMI and what it tracks

The monthly LMI is produced by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, the University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University and Rutgers University, with support from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).

The LMI report is authored by Zac Rogers, Ph.D., Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt, Ph.D., Ron Lembke, Ph.D. and Dale Rogers, Ph.D. The reading is an aggregate of eight discrete logistics components.

Components measured by the index

The LMI aggregates eight logistics sub-metrics to form the overall reading. Those components include the following:

• Inventory levels
• Inventory costs
• Warehousing capacity
• Warehousing utilization
• Warehousing prices
• Transportation capacity
• Transportation utilization
• Transportation prices

Transportation results show marked slowdown

Transportation sub-indices pulled the overall decline. Transportation utilization fell by 4.7% to a reading of 50.0, the weakest September result on record and far below the eight-year September average of 65.1. Transportation prices slipped 1.9% to 54.2, and transportation capacity declined 2.2% to 55.1. The report notes that transportation pricing remains in expansion territory but at its slowest growth rate since April 2024, and that the usual September boost from holiday merchandise shipments did not materialize in September 2025.

Inventory dynamics and cost pressures

Inventory expansion moderated in September, with the inventory-level sub-index at 55.2, down 3.1% from the prior month. Inventory-related costs remain elevated but eased, falling 3.7% to 75.5.

Warehousing capacity, utilization and prices

Warehousing prices experienced the largest single decline among the LMI sub-indexes, dropping 6.3% to 66.0. Despite that fall, warehousing prices are still expanding and the September reading is the second-lowest for 2025 while remaining above the 2024 average of 65.2. Meanwhile, warehousing capacity ticked up 1.1% to 51.6, and warehousing utilization rose 3.2% to 65.3.

Researchers' interpretation and context

At the CSCMP EDGE conference in National Harbor, Maryland, Dr. Zac Rogers said this September result is the second-lowest reading of the year, with March remaining the lowest due to an earlier-than-usual pull-forward of inventories at the start of the year.

“This is the second-lowest reading this year, only behind March, and the reason March was low is because of the big pull-forward of inventories that happened at the beginning of the year,” Dr. Rogers said, describing unusual inventory timing last year when goods started arriving in late December because of tariff timing and only slowed again after the end of March.

Why the decline does not equal contraction

The authors emphasize that while many cost and price measures fell in September, none moved into contraction territory. A sequential decline in the index can still represent positive growth: for example, the 6.3% decrease in warehousing prices lowered the pace of expansion without reversing it.

Rogers summarized the pattern: inventories were coming in quickly through the summer and have since slowed, which reduced related costs. “Inventory costs are down about three and a half points, whereas warehousing is down 6.3 and transportation is down, too,” he said. He also noted that readings above 60 reflect a robust rate of growth and readings above 70 denote significant expansion, characterizing the change as a slowdown from a previously fast pace.

Near-term implications for logistics stakeholders

The September LMI shows the logistics sector still growing but at a moderated rate, with transportation metrics and warehousing prices leading the deceleration. Stakeholders should interpret the lower monthly readings as a cooling from rapid growth rather than an outright contraction, while monitoring holiday shipping patterns and inventory flows for further shifts.