NRF and Hackett issue outlook for 2026 imports

The National Retail Federation and maritime consultant Hackett Associates released a new Global Port Tracker report projecting that U.S.-bound retail container imports will fall on an annual basis during the first half of 2026. The report, published earlier today, highlights expected declines in container volumes at major U.S. gateway ports.

Ports included in the Port Tracker survey

The report bases its numbers on a set of major U.S. ports. Those ports are listed below

• Los Angeles/Long Beach
• Oakland
• Tacoma
• Seattle
• Houston
• New York/New Jersey
• Hampton Roads
• Charleston
• Savannah
• Miami
• Jacksonville
• Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

What the container figures represent

The report’s authors note that the data count containers entering the United States and do not measure the monetary value of the goods inside them. Because the figures reflect unit volumes rather than value, they serve as an approximate gauge of retailers’ expectations and inventory activity rather than a direct measure of retail sales or employment.

Legal and policy uncertainty around tariffs

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said that the ongoing legal and congressional debates over tariffs are visibly affecting import volumes. He stressed the need for stable, predictable trade rules to give businesses and consumers certainty, arguing that tariffs effectively function as a tax on U.S. companies that is passed on to shoppers through higher prices.

The report also highlights a pending Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the White House’s use of IEEPA authority to impose tariffs, saying a decision could arrive at any time. It warns that, if the Court rules against the administration, the White House might attempt alternative measures to advance tariffs, creating further uncertainty.

December data and Port Tracker projections for 2026

For December, the most recent month with available data, the surveyed ports (with data missing from Houston and Charleston) handled 1.99 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). That total was down 1.7% from November but up 6.6% versus December a year earlier.

Port Tracker’s forward-looking tallies indicate that if projections hold, the first half of 2026 would total roughly 12.27 million TEU, a 2% drop year over year, and total imports for all of 2026 would be down about 2.3% compared with 2025. The report explains that projected year-over-year increases in May and June primarily reflect an unusually large decline in those months in 2025, when imports fell after the White House announced its so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Hackett’s analysis of trade shifts and supply chain stress

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, wrote that the use of tariffs as a coercive tool is reshaping international trade relationships and placing new strains on established supply chains. He cited examples such as Canada growing trade and investment ties with the European Union and China, and the EU’s move to conclude a trade agreement with India, as indicators of that shift.

Hackett added that efforts to build supply chain resilience grew after the pandemic, but uncertainty about where to create redundant capacity can raise costs. He said shippers may see lower freight rates in coming years, noting that carriers that recently reported strong profits are now facing negative returns, as disclosed by companies including Maersk and ONE.

Hackett warned that the outlook for carrier profits could weaken further as voyages through the Suez Canal resume and a large orderbook of new vessels is delivered, which together will release additional capacity. He said lower rates would help shippers but also underscore a market dealing with excess capacity amid limited economic growth.

Implications for retailers and consumers

The report’s findings and the commentary from industry officials underscore the interplay between trade policy, shipping market dynamics and retail supply chains. The combination of tariff uncertainty, potential legal changes, and shifting global trade patterns could complicate business planning and have downstream effects on inventory, pricing and consumer affordability.

Retail sales ended 2025 with gains, according to data issued earlier today by the United States Department of Commerce. Retail sales, at $735.0 billion, were essentially flat, up 0.4%, from November to December and posted a 2.4% annual gain, according to Commerce. For all of 2025, it stated that retail sales were up 3.7% annually, with total retail sales from October through December up 3.0% annually. Commerce reported that retail trade sales were flat, up 0.5%, sequentially and up 2.1% annually, and non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, saw a 5.3% annual gain, and food services and drinking places saw sales rise 4.7%. Last month, the National Retail Federation issued the monthly CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which is in partnership with Affinity Solutions. The report found that total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, rose 1.26% seasonally-adjusted month-over-month and were up 3.54% on an unadjusted basis annually in December. And it added that the reports calculation of core retail sales, excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, were up 1.6%, from November to December and a 3.58% annual gain. It explained that a late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December, providing an “extra busy day of holiday spending” pushed into December, in turn, with full-year retail sales up 4.93% annually and core sales to a 5.08% increase. A Reuters report noted that the flat sequential growth reported by Commerce fell short of estimates, calling it “unexpectedly unchanged,” adding that “households cut back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year.” Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData, wrote in a research note 2025 was “solid enough” with growth of around 3% on a total basis. “This is not the washout that some predicted and it underlines the robustness of the U.S. consumer,” he stated. “That said, the real story is in underlying volumes which came in below average and created some of the polarization we have seen among retailers. The outlook for 2026 is very mixed and we see many of the trends, such as low volumes, carrying over into the new year. The environment will remain one in which battling for market share remains critical.”

Dive Brief:

• Amazon delivered nearly 70% more items the same day they were ordered in 2025 than the year before as customers flocked to fast shipping options in categories like food and essentials, CEO Andy Jassy said on a Q4 earnings call Thursday.
• Groceries and "Everyday Essentials" like health, beauty and baby care made up half of the total items that U.S. Prime members received the same day or next day last year, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on the call. The company can now deliver perishable groceries to customers in over 2,300 U.S. cities and towns the same day, he added.
• "We also see that customers shopping perishable groceries add 3x more items to their same-day delivery orders," Olsavsky said. "Looking ahead, we see further opportunity to enhance productivity in our global fulfillment network while delivering at faster speeds for customers."

Dive Insight:

Same-day is Amazon's fastest-growing delivery option, and nearly 100 million U.S. customers used it in 2025, Jassy said. Rural customers particularly benefited from the quick delivery push last year, with nearly twice as many average monthly shoppers in rural areas receiving same-day delivery compared to the year before, he added.

Beyond groceries and essentials, same-day delivery can also come in handy for last-minute gift shopping. The option allowed for later order cutoff times during the 2025 holidays, Jassy noted. On Christmas Eve, customers in about 4,000 U.S. cities could order items up until the middle of the day for same-day delivery, he said.

Amazon is looking to increase its speeds further in the future as the fast delivery capabilities of rivals like Walmart grow. The company is testing Amazon Now, which offers deliveries in 30 minutes or less, in several U.S. communities amid a positive reception in India.

"It's early, but customers are loving it," Jassy said. "For example, in India, customer response exceeded our most optimistic expectations, and we're seeing Prime members triple their shopping frequency once they start using it."

Amazon's accelerating delivery speeds have been fueled in part by its shift from a national to a regional network model in the U.S., which aims to position inventory closer to end customers to reduce shipping distances. The e-commerce giant now has 10 distinct regions in its U.S. fulfillment network, up from eight previously, according to Jassy.

"We've extended regionalization to what we do with our inbound delivery to be much more efficient in being able to get more items closer to customers more quickly," Jassy said.

This article was written by Max Garland from Supply Chain Dive and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to legal@industrydive.com.