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U.S. Retail Sales Finish 2025 with Modest Gains and Mixed Signals

U.S. Retail Sales Finish 2025 with Modest Gains and Mixed Signals

Commerce Department headline figures

The U.S. Department of Commerce released data earlier today showing retail sales ended 2025 with gains. Total retail receipts for December were reported at $735.0 billion.

Monthly and annual changes for December

Commerce said retail sales in December rose 0.4% from November on a seasonally adjusted basis and increased 2.4% compared with December a year earlier.

Full-year and fourth-quarter performance

For the full year 2025, the Commerce Department reported retail sales were up 3.7% versus 2024. Sales across the October-through-December quarter rose 3.0% on an annual basis.

Retail trade and sector-level breakdown

Commerce provided a closer look at trade and specific segments, noting the following movements:

  • Retail trade sales were essentially flat month-to-month but recorded a 0.5% sequential uptick in Commerce's accounting and were up 2.1% year-over-year.
  • Non-store retailers, which include e-commerce businesses, posted a 5.3% annual gain.
  • Food services and drinking places saw sales increase by 4.7% compared with a year earlier.

NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor December findings

Separately, the National Retail Federation's monthly CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, produced in partnership with Affinity Solutions, offered alternative measures that exclude certain categories.

The NRF report found that total retail sales excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations rose 1.26% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3.54% higher on an unadjusted year-over-year basis in December.

Core retail sales and timing effects from Thanksgiving

The NRF analysis also calculated a core retail-sales figure that excludes restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations. Core sales were up 1.6% from November to December and showed a 3.58% gain versus the prior year.

The organization said a late Thanksgiving this year pushed Cyber Monday into December, creating an "extra busy day of holiday spending" that boosted December activity. Using its full-year measures, the NRF reported retail sales rose 4.93% for 2025, with its core-sales series up 5.08% for the year.

Market reaction and Reuters assessment

A Reuters story noted that the Commerce Department's report on the flat sequential reading came in below forecasts, describing the month-to-month outcome as "unexpectedly unchanged." Reuters added that households reduced spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, a shift that could slow consumer spending and overall economic growth as the new year begins.

Analyst perspective from GlobalData

Neil Saunders, Managing Director at GlobalData, commented in a research note that 2025 was "solid enough," with roughly 3% growth on a total basis. He said the data underscore the resilience of the U.S. consumer even as volumes beneath the headline figures were weaker than average, contributing to a polarization among retailers.

Saunders added that the outlook for 2026 is uneven, with many of the low-volume trends likely to persist and making competition for market share a central challenge for retailers.

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